Chicago Jul 13 Soybeans Close At Lifetime Contract High
08/07/13 -- Soycomplex: Strong export demand for beans continues, with the USDA today announcing the sale of 120 TMT of new crop US beans sold to China, along with 135 TMT to unknown. Front month Jul 13 beans closed at a lifetime contract high. Weekly export inspections were modest at 2.465 million bushels, although in line with expectations of 2-6 million. After the close the USDA left good/excellent US soybean crop conditions unchanged at 67%, the trade was expecting a small improvement. There's talk that the weather in the Midwest is turning hotter 7-10 days from now. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean crop at 82.336 MMT and pegged Argentina’s at 49.1 MMT. They have the total South America bean crop at 146.347 MMT versus 117.456 MMT a year ago. They said that Brazilian gorwers have sold 78% of their 2012/13 bean crop versus 92% a year ago. AgRural said Brazil has sold 20% of their as yet unplanted 2013/14 bean crop, up from only 5% sold at the end of May, but down on the estimated 52% sold this time last year. CONAB come out tomorrow with their monthly Brazilian crop report. Last month they had the 2012/13 bean crop at 81.3 MMT and soybean exports at 36.78 MMT. Once that is out of the way the trade will be focusing on Thursday's WASDE report from the USDA. There may be a bit of position squaring ahead of that as nobody underestimates the USDA's capacity to spring a surprise. Jul 13 CBOT beans closed 21 1/4 cents higher at USD16.09 1/4; Nov 13 beans were 17 1/2 cents firmer at USD12.31 1/4; Jul 13 meal ended USD22.00 higher at USD511.10; Jul 13 soybean oil closed 22 points lower at 47.01.
Corn: The corn market closed higher. Talk of a hotter and dryer outlook for the Midwest may have encouraged some short-covering ahead of Thursday's USDA report following the recent demise of new crop prices. Friday's night's close in Dec 13 corn was the lowest since 2010. The USDA announced the sale of 120 TMT of US new crop corn to Mexico. Weekly export inspections of 8.205 million bushels were slightly below the low end of expectations of 9-15 million. Taiwan tendered for optional origin corn for September shipment. The Buenos Aires Exchange pegged Argentina’s corn harvest at 84.1% complete, with production forecast at 24.8 MMT. Macquaire Bank didn't specifically change their forecast for US corn prices to average USD4.50/bu in the last quarter of 2013, but did say that prices could fall below that level once the US harvest is over in the Oct/Nov period. After the close the USDA said that corn good/excellent crop conditions improved one percentage point from last week to 68%. That's a lot better than 40% this time last year. Silking is only at 6% versus 46% a year ago and 20% for the 5-year average. Safras e Mercado said as of Friday 8.3% of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop has been harvested. CONAB are due out tomorrow with their July Brazilian crop production estimates, last month they had corn output at 78.5 MMT. Argentine Ag Minister said as of Friday 90% of the corn crop has been harvested versus 85% a year ago. Argentina will be on holiday tomorrow. Reports that a large volume of China's 2013 wheat harvest may only be suitable for feed usage could be detrimental to Chinese corn imports in 2013/14. Jul 13 CBOT corn closed 7 cents higher at USD6.91 3/4; Dec 13 corn closed 9 1/4 cents higher at USD5.00 1/2.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on all three exchanges, supported by the announcement of the sale of 840 TMT of US SRW wheat to China for 2013/14 delivery. With last week's and prior US sales on top, added to recent known Chinese purchases from France and Australia it is reckoned that China has already booked around 4.2 MMT of wheat for 2013/14 delivery. The USDA's current forecast is only 3.5 MMT for the entire season. They will doubtless be revisiting that estimate on Thursday. Both IKAR and SovEcon trimmed their estimates for Russian grain and wheat production in 2013. CONAB are out with their Brazil crop estimates tomorrow, last month they had the 2013/14 wheat crop at 5.56 MMT. After the close the USDA said that the US winter wheat harvest was now past halfway at 57% done, up from 43% a week ago, but below 78% this time last year and 64% for the 5-year average. Good/excellent crop conditions were unchanged at 34%, although 42% of the crop is still rated poor/very poor. In Indiana, where good/excellent is 76%, there are reports that early yields are coming in at over 100 bu/acre versus 67 bu/acre last year. The USDA raised the percentage of spring wheat rated good/excellent from 68% last week to 72% as of Sunday night. Algeria are tendering for 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for September shipment. Pakistan are said to have bought around 250 TMT of Black Sea wheat for Aug/Sep shipment in the past few weeks. Iran are said to be in the market for 250-350 TMT of wheat, but they won't take Indian origin. Jul 13 CBOT wheat closed 4 cents higher at USD6.60; Jul 13 KCBT wheat closed 14 3/4 cents higher at USD6.91 1/4; Jul 13 MGEX wheat was 11 3/4 cents higher at USD7.73.
