The Morning News
09/07/13 -- The overnight grains are generally firmer, adding to last night's gains. Nearby Jul 13 beans and meal are now at their highest level ever in the contract's history, and at the highest for a front month since last September,
All Jul 13 CBOT contracts expire on Friday, Aug 13 will then be the new front month for beans and meal and Sep 13 for corn and wheat.
Thursday bring the July WASDE report from the USDA. As far as world stocks go the trade is estimating 2012/13 wheat carryout at 179.344 MMT (versus 179.87 MMT from the USDA last month), with 2013/14 ending stocks at 180.293 MMT (181.25 MMT).
For corn the trade is forecasting 2012/13 at 124.222 MMT (124.31 MMT) and 2013/14 at 152.404 MMT (151.83 MMT). For beans the average guess for 2012/13 is 60.938 MMT (61.21 MMT) and in 2013/14 at 73.557 MMT (73.69 MMT). Not a lot of changes there then.
As far as US ending stocks go the trade estimates 2012/13 corn carryout at 725 million bushels (versus 769 million from the USDA last month). Soybean carryout in 2012/13 is estimated on average at 121 million bushels (versus the USDA's apparent "line in the sand" of 125 million last month).
For 2013/14 US ending stocks the average trade guesses are Wheat 632 million bushels (vs. 659 mln in June), corn 1.896 billion (vs. 1.949 bln) and soybeans at 263 million (vs. 265 mln).
They will also give us a 2013/14 US wheat production estimate, with all wheat forecast at 2.070 billion bushels versus 2.080 bln last month and 2.269 bln in 2012.
The pound has just gone for another bath against the dollar shortly after 9.30am London time. There were some UK industrial and manufacturing production estimates due out then, so they must have fallen short of expectations. Latest 1.4889.
The French Farm Ministry have estimated soft winter wheat production there at 35.8 MMT, up 0.7% versus 35.5 MMT last year, with durum output down 24.3% to 1.8 MMT. The barley crop is estimated at 10.5 MMT, down 7.7%, The French OSR crop is seen falling 18.5% to 4.4 MMT this year.
In Russia's southern Krasnodar district the 2013 grain harvest is already 75% complete at 6.1 MMT. Wheat accounts for 5 MMT of that total, with yields said to be averaging 5.14 MT/ha, up 22.7% on last year's very poor result.
Nationally the Russian harvest is now said to be complete on 10% of the planned area at 14.4 MMT with average yields up 23% at 3.19 MT/ha. An improvement but not a bin-buster it would seem, and this might be as good as it gets I suspect.
In Ukraine grain production now stands at 10.5 MMT, with average yields of 2.64 MT/ha, up 35% on this time last year. Yields here should improve as the harvest moves north and west.
London wheat has opened with Nov 13 up a pound and Paris wheat EUR1.50-2.00/tonne firmer.
