Chicago Mixed, Soy Down, Corn And Wheat Higher
30/07/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans fell sharply despite the USDA announcing a sale of 290,000 MT of new crop US soybeans to unknown. Some of the selling on front month Aug 13 may have been linked to tomorrow being first notice day on the contract. There's talk that China may have bought a cargo of western Canadian beans for Nov shipment. India’s Agriculture Commissioner estimated India’s soybean crop at a record 14.7 MMT. Michael Cordonnier estimated 2013 US bean yields at 42.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. All eyes remain focused on the US weather. "Eastern Midwest soybeans still have the potential to make a very good crop. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio all reported at least 70% good-excellent soybeans in late July. Soybeans are most resistant to drought than corn, hanging on and waiting for rain. If soaking rains develop in August, the key pod-filling stage, a favourable yield may occur," said Martell Crop Projections. However, "the new 5-day forecast is way drier than yesterday, a dramatic reversal on the part of the GFS model. The forecast now calls or mostly dry conditions in the Midwest, though Nebraska and SW Iowa may get meaningful rain. Scattered rains up to 0.60 inch are also possible also in the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, the Midwest outlook is dry. I cannot remember a period when the GFS model was so erratic," they added. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.50, down 17 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.03, down 17 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD429.20, down USD9.70; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.11, down 36 points.
Corn: The corn market managed a little short-covering recovery after six down days. South Korea bought 50 TMT of Black Sea origin corn for Jan shipment at USD233.44 C&F (equivalent of GBP152.57). The Brazilian vessel line-up apparently shows 3 corn boats heading to the US. Safras e Mercado yesterday forecast Brazil's 2013/14 corn crop falling from 82.0 MMT this season to 77.57 MMT. They said that 1st corn will decline from 33.05 MMT to 29.28 MMT and 2nd crop corn from 45.2 MMT to 42.46 MMT. The Ukraine State Weather Centre said that the corn crop there would be "at least" 25 MMT this year versus 20.9 MMT last year, helped by plantings rising 13.6% from 4.4 million ha to 5.0 million ha. On the US weather front "rainfall increased last week in the Midwest, but these were hit-or-miss showers. Corn improved where rains occurred but deteriorated where it stayed dry. Nationally 63% of corn made the good-excellent grade, identical to a week ago. July pollinating conditions have been dry in all 4 leading corn states Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota," said Martell Crop Projections. "July rainfall to date ranks among the driest in 35 years with only 2.4 inches in the corn belt. Corn has been subsisting on stored ground moisture. June was very wet, otherwise crop conditions would be far worse," they added. Michael Cordonnier estimated 2013 US corn yields at 153.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. The weekly ethanol report is out tomorrow. That's been steadily falling in recent weeks, from 881,000 barrels/day three weeks ago, to 876,000 bpd two weeks ago and only 853,000 bpd last week. The bulls will be hoping for a reversal of that trend, and may likely get it if recent reports of more physically available domestic corn suddenly coming onto the market are correct. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.95 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.77 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed higher on all three exchanges on strong world demand. China's CNGOIC said that the country had bought 1.5 MMT of Australian wheat in the past 6 weeks. It is thought that they've already bought 3.45 MMT of US wheat, along with smaller quantities of French and Canadian wheat, bringing their total known purchases so far for 2013/14 to over 5.5 MMT. Taiwan bought 97,200 MT of US wheat for August Sept shipment. Japan lifted its ban on importing US western white wheat. They then issued their normal Tuesday tender, looking for 178 TMT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat, the tender also included almost 90 TMT of US western white wheat. Egypt bought 240 TMT of Ukraine and Romanian wheat in its fourth tender of the month. South Korea's NOFI bought 50 TMT of Black Sea origin wheat for Jan shipment and are negotiation another cargo for Jan shipment. There's talk that Brazil may need to buy up to 1 MMT of US HRW wheat as their own crop has been hit by frost and Argentina has nothing to sell until they bring in their 2013/14 crop at the end of the year. Dryness in Western Australia means that wheat production in the state will only make 8.5 MMT "at best" according to one local analyst. ABARES currently estimate the crop there at 8.8 MMT versus only 6.9 MMT in last years drought-hit crop. Production in WA would normally be expected to be around 10 MMT. The Andersons are reporting quality problems in US SRW wheat due to heavy rains in the beginning of July. Sprouted wheat is said to be the worst in some areas for more than 20 years. There are also reports of quality problems with Russian wheat, whilst early harvested crops in France and Germany are said to be displaying low protein levels. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.55 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.96 1/4, up 6 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.37 1/4, up 3 cents.
