EU Wheat Closing Comments - Monday
01/07/13 -- EU grains closed mixed with Jul 13 London wheat (which expires on Friday) finishing the day GBP1.70/tonne easier at GBP154.00/tonne, and with the more active new crop Nov 13 ending GBP0.40/tonne higher at GBP165.00/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat rose EUR0.25/tonne to close to EUR194.00/tonne.
Dec 13 Chicago new crop corn slumped to 30 month lows following the USDA's surprise rise in planted area on Friday. CBOT wheat also came under pressure in afternoon trade, the USDA predicted US all wheat plantings at a 4-year high on Friday.
The spectre of a large Black Sea harvest hangs over the market. The Ukraine PM said that their 2013 grain harvest would come in 10-12 MMT up on last year's 46.2 MMT, which would make for record crop if true. Early wheat yields are said to be 15-20% up on last year, with OSR yields 10-12% higher.
Ukraine agronomist Mike Lee said that weekend rains in Western Ukraine had given way to sunny and dry weather today and for the rest of the week, saying that growing conditions were "perfect".
Russia's Krasnodar distract meanwhile has already harvested 30% (around 2 MMT) of it's wheat crop, with yields coming in 23% higher than last year at 5.14 MT/ha. Other grain/legume yields are 25.7% up on last year at 5.18 MT/ha, producing a crop of 3 MMT so far, say the local Ag Ministry.
Russian 4th grade milling wheat prices fell 16% last week as the harvest prepares to get into full gear, according to a report on Bloomberg today.
The UK could be in for a month of warm and sunny weather, according to Sky. A ridge of high pressure building from the south west starting Friday could bring plenty of sunshine lasting until the end of the month, they said.
The French wouldn't mind a dose of the same after the wettest spring in more than 50 years and the coldest in 25 years. The French corn growers group AGMP said that corn plantings there could total 1.63 million acres this year, some 70,000 less than the USDA currently predict. That's broadly in line with other trade forecasts for 50-60,000 ha of intended corn acres not to get sown this year.
EU-28 soft wheat exports are forecast to drop 9.2% to 17.7 MMT in 2013/14, according to Strategie Grains, as competition from the Back Sea hots up.
Syria are tendering for 200 TMT of wheat flour on humanitarian grounds. Payment they said will be via frozen Syrian bank accounts in the EU and Arab nations.
Tunisia seeks 100 TMT of soft wheat and 75 TMT of feed barley of optional origin for Aug/Oct shipment.
Cash strapped and civil unrest riddled Egypt remain absent from the market. There's no deal yet with the IMF to secure a USD4.8 billion loan. Presumably the IMF want to wait to see who is going to be in charge first?
