Nogger's Blog

01/07/13 -- Soycomplex: Nearby beans were firmer and new crop lower on a continuation of the recent theme of razor thin old crop stocks versus the USDA promise of potentially record US production to come. Front month Jul 13 raced to a lifetime contract high above USD16/bu before giving up most of those gains at the close, even so the contracts still finished the day 6 cents higher, with new crop Nov 13 ending 8 3/4 cents lower. Weekly soybean export inspections were fair at 4.518 million bushels given the early season meteoric pace. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that 99% of the bean harvest there was complete as of Friday, the same as a year ago. Safras e Mercado said that Brazil has sold 78% of their 2012/13 soybean crop versus 92% a year ago. They said that Brazilian farmers had sold 10% of their 2013/14 bean crop versus 33% a year ago. They estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 bean crop at 85.0 MMT. Brazilian truckers are on strike. The strike started this morning at 6 am local time and will end Thursday at 6 am local time. After the close the USDA pegged the 2013 US soybean crop at 96% planted versus 92% a week ago and 98% for the 5-year average. They have emergence at 91% versus 81% a week ago and 94% for the 5-year average. Good/excellent crop conditions rose two percentage points from last week to 67%, and well ahead of 45% this time last year. The US weather outlook remains non-threatening for the time being. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.70 1/2, up 6 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.43 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD484.80, down USD5.50; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 46.85, up 43 points.

Corn: Unlike soybeans, the largest losses in corn today came on the nears as long holders cashed in their chips, taking advantage of the large inverse between old and new crop. Dec 13 is threatening to fall below USD5.00 for the first time in 30 months as new crop corn extended its losing run to nine straight sessions. Rabobank forecast Q4 corn prices at USD4.90/bu, with Q1 2014 levels down to USD4.80/bushel. Nevertheless, old crop availability remains very tight. Weekly export inspections were decent at 14.818 million bushels, versus the expected 4-9 million. The Indonesian Stats Bureau estimated their 2013 corn crop at 18.84 MMT versus 19.39 MMT last year. South Korea are tendering for 60 TMT of optional origin corn for Sep/Nov shipment. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that 88% of their corn harvest is complete versus 80% a year ago. Safras e Mercado said that Brazil has harvested 5% of their 2nd corn crop versus 3% a year ago. The Ukraine Ministry said that they'd finished the 2012/13 season exporting 13.53 MMT of corn versus 13.86 MMT a year previously. The IGC estimated the 2013/14 global corn crop at a record 946 MMT versus a previous estimate of 945 MMT and up almost 11% on 854 MMT in 2012/13. They forecast world 2013/14 corn ending stocks at 149.0 MMT - a 13 year high and up 25% from their 2012/13 estimate. They have the US corn crop at a record 355.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and up almost 30% on 273.8 MMT in 2012/13. After the close the USDA rose US corn crop conditions by two points in the good/excellent category to 67% versus 48% a year ago. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.55 1/2, down 23 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.01 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was mixed, under pressure from weakening corn. Weekly export inspections of 26.42 million bushels were larger than the expected 14-20 million. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that 54% or their wheat crop has been planted versus 47% a year ago. Exports for the remainder of 2012/13 are now banned. It remains to be seen whether that encourages farmers to plant the government's target of 4.5 million hectares of wheat this year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast only 3.9 million ha, an 8% rise on last year. Russia's wheat harvest is picking up pace, but there are signs that maybe final yields may not be as strong as some of the very early harvest results suggested. With 3.9 MMT of wheat harvested nationally average yields are now coming in at 3.71 MT/ha as of Friday, the Russian Ag Ministry said today. That's up 15% on this time a year ago, a decent gain but not spectacular given how bad things were in 2012. The IGC estimated the 2013/14 global wheat crop at 683 MMT versus a previous estimate of 682 MMT and up 4% on 655.0 MMT in 2012/13. They see China's 2013/14 wheat imports at 3.5 MMT, the same as the USDA. Rabobank however said that China's import requirement could reach 10 MMT in the year ahead, the most since 1995. After the close the USDA said that the US winter wheat harvest had advanced from 20% complete last week to 43% done as of Sunday night. Spring wheat crop condition ratings fell two points in the good/excellent category to 68%, contrary to market expectations for a slight improvement. Emergence is at 93% versus 90% a week ago and 99% for the 5-year average. Only 18% of the crop is headed versus 69% a year ago and 32% for the 5-year average. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.45 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.76 3/4, up 1/2 cent; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.78 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents.