EU Wheat Mixed Tuesday

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:40 | Categorized as

02/07/13 -- EU grains were mixed Tuesday, supported a little from the recent rout by Egypt re-entering the market for the first time since February.

A fragile and soon to expire Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP0.25/tonne firmer at GBP154.25/tonne, and the more liquid Nov 13 ended also up GBP0.25/tonne at GBP165.25/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR0.75/tonne easier at EUR193.25/tonne.

The market found some solace from a surprise Egyptian tender, which resulted in them buying two cargoes of Romanian wheat and one of Ukraine origin. There were 11 offers, which is somewhat surprising given that nobody knows who is going to be in charge next week, let alone in August when the wheat is due for delivery.

The fact that there were so many willing to bid for the business maybe highlights how keen the market is for buying orders right now.

The Russian harvest rumbles on, with 8.5 MMT of grain in the bin so far with an average yield of 3.67 MT/ha versus 2.74 MT/ha this time last year. Of that total 6.8 MMT is wheat, with yield up 29% on a year ago at 3.58 MT/ha.

Ukraine finished 2012/13 exporting 22.82 MMT of grains, including 13.5 MMT of corn (versus 13.86 MMT in 2011/12), 6.8 MMT of wheat (5.17 MMT) and 2.1 MMT of barley (2.58 MMT).

Agritel say that Ukraine will harvest 20.5 MMT of wheat thus year (versus the 19.5 MMT estimated by the USDA), 24.9 MMT of corn (26.0 MMT) and 7.4 MMT of barley (7.0 MMT).

The IGC yesterday forecast the EU wheat crop this year at 139.4 MMT, up from 138.2 MMT previously and 130.3 MMT last year.

They have output in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia at 14.0 MMT, 20.0 MMT and 52.0 MMT respectively. That compares with 9.8 MMT, 15.8 MMT and 37.7 MMT in 2012/13.