Chicago Wheat Dives On Rain Forecast For US Plains
26/03/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the front end once again showing the biggest rises. The main driver is the frenetic pace of US exports so far this season, with 94% of the USDA target for 2013/14 already shipped. The trade is expecting US Mar 1st soybean stocks to come in below a billion bushels in Monday's stocks report from the USDA, even lower than last year and down sharply on 2.148 billion as at Dec 1st. Reports continue to circulate that China is reselling surplus soybean purchases to the US however. One Chinese website stated that Chinese soybean crushers have sold 8 South American soybean cargoes to the US and that they have cancelled or delayed up to a further 20 cargoes of South American soybeans. Brazil's IBGE said that the "safrinha" soybean area there has increased 6-fold to 745,000 hectares. High soybean prices, and low ones for corn, are encouraging the planting of second crop beans despite government disapproval of the practice which they say increases Asian Rust risks. Dr Cordonnier estimates that this could add a further 1.5 MMT of soybeans to the Brazilian crop, on the basis that this area would yield around two thirds of normal full season beans. The practice of soy on soy is also widespread in Paraguay where a further 550,000 ha of second crop beans have been planted, double the area sown last year. That could also add around a further 1 MMT to their crop, Dr Cordonnier adds. Some Paraguayan growers are now planting 3 crops a season, starting with soybeans in September, soybeans again early in the new year, followed by wheat, he noted. Dry weather is forecast for Argentina and Brazil through to the end of the week, with rains in the forecast for the weekend. May 14 Soybeans closed at $14.40, up 12 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.10, up 8 3/4 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $469.10, up $5.40; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.73, down 1 point.
Corn: The corn market drifted a couple of cents lower, with fresh news hard to come by. The daily trading range was narrow, little more than 5 cents on the nears and less than that further forward. The trade is positioning itself for the Planting Intentions report on Monday, with estimates for corn in the range of 90.5-94.0 million acres versus the 75-year high of 95.4 million last year. The USDA Forum estimate in February came in at 92.0 million. For March 1st stocks we also have quite a wide range of trade estimates of 6.8-7.5 billion bushels. March 1st stocks in 2013 were only 5.4 billion bushels. "If I am looking for a surprise on this report, I look to the quarterly stocks data and estimates on 1st quarter feed demand for corn. At the time they appeared overstated and caught many in the cash trade as well as analysts and the institutional investor completely off guard. If quarterly stocks project even a slightly higher carryout and the somewhat dismal ethanol grind, despite ethanol profitability, continues, the institutional investor is long too much corn at the current levels," said Brian Henry of Benson Quinn Commodiies. The Energy Dept reported that weekly ethanol production fell to 885,000 barrels/day this past week, down from 891,000 bpd the previous week and once again below the 933,000 bpd needed to hit the USDA's target for the season. South Korea's NOFI bought 189,000 MT of US/South American corn for July-Aug shipment in a tender for up to 210,000 MT. May 14 Corn closed at $4.84 1/2, down 2 cents; Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.89 1/4, down 2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market took a nosedive on a wetter outlook for the dry US Plains. "Showers are predicted in Kansas, Oklahoma and central Texas in the new 7-day outlook. The GFS model predicts 0.25 to 0.50 inch of moisture in the next 48 hours. North central Kansas may receive even heavier rain up to one inch, when a short-wave disturbance tracks across the central Great Plains and Upper Midwest. The percent chance of rainfall in the 24 hours up to midnight tonight is promising for rain in Oklahoma where a 65% to 77% risk is predicted. Moderate rain, if it develops, would be the first important precipitation in several weeks," said Martell Crop Projections. Japan's Ag Ministry estimated 2014/15 food wheat imports at 4.93 MMT, little changed from 4.91 MMT in 2013/14. They said that they will hold 943,000 MT of wheat in reserves in 2014, again little changed from. 938,000 MT in 2013. Australian growing areas are set to see good rains, which will help with their planting season. Russia could see better moisture too in the 8-15 day forecast, but Ukraine still looks dry. Central and Eastern Europe is also trending drier. Russia are seen exporting more grain in March than previously expected, and with shipments in April also holding up well. There's some trade gossip that KCBT wheat sales to Brazil are being switched to Russian origin material. China only sold around a third of the 800 TMT of wheat on offer at this week's government auction. That's down from around 45% a week ago. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.96 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents; May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.71 1/4, down 20 1/2 cents; May 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.46, down 17 cents.
