EU Grains Lower On Lack Of Bullish News

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:07 | Categorized as

26/03/14 -- EU grains closed the day mostly lower, in light consolidation from recent gains. The bulls must be fed every day, and there were only slim pickings around today.

The day ended with May 14 London wheat down GBP1.45/tonne at GBP168.30/tonne, and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat closing GBP1.70/tonne lower at GBP159.80/tonne. May 14 Paris wheat closed EUR2.50/tonne weaker at EUR210.50/tonne, Jun 14 Paris corn was unchanged at EUR185.75/tonne, whilst May 14 Paris rapeseed rose EUR0.50/tonne to close at EUR409.25/tonne.

The HGCA raised their forecast for UK wheat imports this season from 1.63 MMT to 1.80 MMT. They also increased their estimate for UK corn imports from 1.73 MMT to 2.01 MMT, a 19% rise on last season.

"Despite the exceptionally wet winter in parts of Western Europe, crop conditions in Europe overall are good at present," the HGCA said. They noted that winter crops were generally more advanced than average at this point in the year, and that spring plantings are successfully underway.

Some areas, parts of Germany in particular could now do with rain, despite a relatively wet autumn. However, despite a generally dry March so far "this precipitation trend will likely have to last for a longer period for it to cause real problems for crops," they said.

APK Inform said that Ukraine could harvest a record oilseeds crop this year, despite all their problems. If the weather doesn't deteriorate then Ukraine could harvest 9.8 MMT of sunflower, 5 MMT of soybeans and 2 MMT of rapeseed in 2014, they estimated.

Rusagrotrans increased their forecast for Russian grain exports this month from 1.35-1.40 MMT to 1.55-1.60 MMT, and up from 1.3 MMT in February. They see April exports at around 1.6 MMT as the recent devaluation of the Russian rouble makes their exports more competitive.

Weather models have suddenly turned much wetter for Russia and Kazakhstan across the next fortnight, which should ultimately be of benefit to crops there even if it might hold up spring planting in Russia's southern districts.

Australian growers are also forecast to get much needed soaking rains across the next couple of weeks, which would be very beneficial ahead of the start of the planting season there, should they arrive.

Algeria are tendering for 50,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for May shipment.