Nogger's Blog

19/05/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains. Weekly export inspections came in at 167,953 MT, which was towards the top end of the expected 80-175,000 MT. Inspections for the 2013/14 season to date are now almost 41.9 MMT versus 34.3 MMT this time a year ago. The Argentine harvest is making only slow progress (around 69% done, say the Ag Ministry) compared with a year ago, dogged by rain. Those rains however appear to have boosted yields. These are being called "exceptional" in Western Chaco state in the north of the country, averaging 4.0-4.2 MT/ha compared to the 10-year average of only 1.64 MT/ha. China are to auction 300,000 MT of soybeans from state-owned reserves on tomorrow. Last week's auction was better received that expected. Chinese crush margins are said to be "nominally in the black" now. They are said to have been fairly active buyers of new crop US beans in the past week or so. Funds were estimated to have been net buyers of around 10,000 soybean contracts on the day. The USDA were expected to report US 2014 soybean plantings at around 30-35% complete. They came out with 33% done versus the 5-year average of 38% and up 13 points from a week ago. Minnesota is a notable laggard at 16% done versus 45% normally. Soybean emergence was 9% versus 11% normally. AgCanada estimated Canada’s 2014 canola area at 8.013 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 8.75 million. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.85 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $14.19 3/4, up 20 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $490.50, up $10.30; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.42, down 33 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 to 6 cents lower on the day. Weekly export inspections of just over 1 MMT were in line with the expected 950,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. The season to date total is now 31.5 MMT versus 13.1 MMT a year ago. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 corn crop at 25.0 MMT versus the USDA's forecast of 24 MMT. The Ukraine 2014 corn crop is 89% planted, and Russia's is 79% done as of Friday. Ukraine said that it had exported 19.1 MMT of corn so far this year, with Russia's export total at 3.7 MMT - both are records. The USDA were expected to report US 2014 corn plantings at around 70-75% done as of Sunday night. The figure that they came up with was 73%, slightly behind the 5-year average pace of 76%, but not drastically so. Michigan (29% done versus 65% normally), Minnesota (53% versus 81%), North Dakota (17% versus 54%) and Wisconsin (36% versus 61%) are the stand-out laggards. Illinois (84% versus 73%), Indiana (72% versus 62%), Missouri (92% versus 77%) are ahead of normal. The USDA said that 34% of the crop is emerged versus the 5-year average of 42%. A year ago 71% of the US corn crop was planted and only 19% was emerged, so beating last season's average yield of 158.8 bu/acre is still possible, although whether they can hit the USDA's current trendline yield estimate of 165.3 bu/acre is another matter. Good planting weather is forecast for most of the US corn belt this week. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.77 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.75 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents. This was the lowest close for a front month since Mar 14.

Wheat: The wheat market ended the day little changed, recovering from trading in the red for much of the day. Weekly export inspections of 552,525 MT were in line with the expected 450-575,000 MT. That takes the total inspected for export for the season to just short of 30.2 MMT versus 26.3 MMT this time a year ago. The USDA say that exports for the current season, which finishes in two weeks, will total 31.5 MMT. That now looks unlikely. AgCanada estimated Canada’s 2014 wheat area at 10.9 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 9.99 million and the USDA's current forecast of only 9.8 million acres. They now see production in 2014/15 at 29.6 MMT. That's down from the record 37.5 MMT produced a year ago, but higher than other estimates from a bit earlier in the year and the USDA's current 28.5 MMT. Turkey are tendering for 190,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Jul–Aug shipment, along with 100,000 MT of optional origin barley for Jun-Jul shipment. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 10.5 MMT, up 14% from a year previously. Russia said that it had exported 17.3 MMT of wheat so far this season, including 469 TMT in the first two weeks of May. The USDA reported that 57% of the US winter wheat crop is now headed, in line with the 5-year average of 58%. They said that 29% of the crop was rated good/excellent, down one point on last week and 2 points less than a year ago. Spring wheat is 49% planted versus the 5-year average of 68%. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.74 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.68 3/4, up 1 cent; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.40 1/4, up 1 cent.