Nogger's Blog

09/07/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mixed, but mostly lower save for the front end. Non threatening US weather and the outlook for a record large by some considerable distance 2014 US soybean crop has the market on the defensive. Both US and global 2014/15 soybean ending stocks are also expected to be pitched at record levels when the USDA releases it's latest world supply and demand numbers on Friday. This will be the first report in which they will reflect their Jun 30 US acreage estimate which stunned the market into retreat. In case you've forgotten, that said that US farmers will planted nearly 85 million acres of soybeans this year - a record by more than 7 million acres. US ending stocks for 2014/15 are therefore seen rising to over 400 million bushels, the most since 2006/07. In other news, Conab estimated Brazil's 2013/14 soybean crop at 86.27 MMT versus a previous estimate of 86.1 MMT. The Rosario Grain Exchange also tweaked their Argentine soybean production estimate for 2013/14 a little higher to a record 55.7 MMT versus a previous estimate of 55.6 MMT and the current USDA figure of 54.0 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the 250,000 to 650,000 MT range. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.34 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.03 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $439.50, up $2.20; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.04, down 76 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower, with Sep 14 and Dec 14 ending below $4/bushel setting contract lows. As well as further fund liquidation/building of new shorts, light producer selling was also noted as the troops throw in the towel, said Benson Quinn Commodities. "The next downside objective in Dec corn is the $3.85 level," they said. Friday's USDA report is expected to suggest a 2014 US corn yield potential of close to 166 bu/acre versus 165.3 bu/acre in June. Some in the trade are now factoring in final yields of up to 170 bu/acre, Benson Quinn suggest. That would be the highest average US corn yield ever, and by some distance. The USDA announced 101,600 MT of US corn sold to Japan for 2014/15 shipment, along with 107,696 MT sold to unknown. Conab estimated the Brazilian 2013/14 corn crop at 78.20 MMT versus a previous estimate of 77.9 MMT and compared to 76 MMT from the USDA in June. China are to attempt to auction off another 5.0 MMT of surplus corn stocks from reserves today and tomorrow. The Energy Dept said that weekly US ethanol production was 927,000 barrels/day, down 26,000 bpd from the previous week. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are in the region of 500-700 TMT. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.04, down 4 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.91 1/4, down 7 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market slumped to fresh lows for the recent move. All the new lows did was stimulate further speculative selling it appears. The Black Sea confirmed it's grip on the world wheat export market, with Romania selling four cargoes of wheat for August shipment to Egypt's GASC. The prices paid were around $1-3 cheaper than last week's purchase. US wheat wasn't even offered on this occasion. Conab estimated the Brazilian 2014/15 wheat crop at 7.40 MMT versus a previous estimate of 7.37 MMT. The USDA currently estimate Brazil's 2014/15 wheat crop at only 6 MMT. Conab estimated Brazil's wheat import needs in 2014/15 at 5.5 MMT, which is 1 MMT less than the USDA currently predict. The Rosario Grain Exchange trimmed their forecast for Argentine wheat plantings for 2014/15 to 4.24 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 4.4 million. That's still a little higher than the USDA's 4.2 million ha estimate, and a 21% jump on the 3.5 million ha planted last year. There's an improving weather forecast for spring wheat on the Canadian Prairies for the next 5-7 days. Japan are tendering for 109,303 MT of wheat for Aug-Sept shipment from the US and Canada. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report from the USDA are around 400-650 TMT. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.39 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.60 3/4, down 14 1/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.40, down 12 cents.