EU Grains Attempt To Consolidate From Recent Rout

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:41 | Categorized as

10/07/14 -- EU grains closed mixed, attempting a bit of light consolidation/profit-taking  following the recent rout ahead of tomorrow's USDA WASDE report.

New crop Nov 14 London wheat finished GBP0.20/tonne higher at GBP132.20/tonne, Nov 14 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR181.75/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR170.25/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed finished EUR0.25/tonne weaker at EUR333.50/tonne.

Nearby Nov 14 Paris wheat equalled a 5-month low of EUR181.50/tonne, closing just above that level. A break below EUR180/tonne could have serious downside consequences.

The German farmers cooperative estimated the wheat crop there at 25.46 MMT, a 1.8% rise on last year. They forecast the German rapeseed crop at 5.97 MMT, a 3.5% rise versus 2013. Winter barley production is seen at 8.75 MMT, up 4.2%, although the spring barley crop will decline to 1.91 MMT, a 1.3% fall as low levels of winterkill reduced spring plantings. The German 2014 corn crop will leap 17.4% to 5.15 MMT, they estimated.

Brussels said that it had issued 329 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, taking the new 2014/15 seasonal total to 350 TMT. They also granted 304 TMT worth of barley exports and issued corn import licences for 125 TMT.

Ukraine said that their early grain harvest had now reached 7.83 MMT, with yields up 7% at 2.93 MT/ha. Wheat accounts for 4.21 MMT of that, with yields averaging 3.06 MT/ha, and the barley harvest thus far totals 3.51 MMT, with yields at 2.82 MT/ha. They've also harvested 585 TMT of OSR with an average yield of 1.99 MT/ha.

The Russian grain harvest meanwhile now totals 12.4 MMT, with an average yield of 3.53 MT/ha, a 12.8% increase compared to 2013. Wheat accounts for 9.2 MMT of that, off 10.1% of the planned area with yields at 3.64 MT/ha versus 3.18 MT/ha in 2013. They've also harvested 2.1 MMT of barley and 220 TMT of OSR.

The UAE bought 69,000 MT of US and South American corn for Nov-March shipment along with 30,000 MT of Australian barley for November shipment.

Reports out of Romania suggest that the early wheat harvest is displaying protein levels similar to last year's levels, contrary to some suggestions that heavy rain in May and June may have damaged quality there. That may help explain their recent successes in Egyptian tenders.

The Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, as was widely expected. The prospect of a rate hike later in the year still underpins the pound however, which adds to the bearish tone for London wheat prices.