Chicago Drifts Lower Heading Into USDA Report

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:01 | Categorized as

10/07/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed closed 4 to 10 cents lower. Weekly export sales of 56,300 MT of old crop and 526,500 MT of new crop were towards the top end of trade estimates of 250,000 to 650,000 MT. The average trade yield estimate for Friday's USDA report is 45.1 bu/acre, according to a Bloomberg survey. Old crop ending stocks are expected to be around 128-130 million bushels, rising to over 400 million for new crop. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.29 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.93 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $434.00, down $5.50; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.27, up 23 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 to 6 cents lower on the day. Front month Jul 14 just about managed to close above $4/bu, although Sep 14 and Dec 14 didn't come close. Weekly export sales of 363,000 MT of old crop and 381,600 MT of new crop were slightly ahead of trade forecasts for a combined 500-700 TMT. The average trade guess for US corn yields on Friday is 165.9 bu/acre, with some suggesting that the current "non-threatening" outlook could see final yields end up close to a record 170 bu/acre. Old crop ending stocks are expected to rise to 1.233 billion bushels, with new crop stocks at something like 1.8 billion. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.00 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.85 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed anywhere from unchanged to 6 cents lower across the three exchanges. Despite the recent slide in prices there was little sign of a short-covering rally heading into tomorrow's USDA report. Weekly export sales came in at only 338,100 MT which was a bit below most trade expectations. The average trade guess for US all wheat production tomorrow is at 1.964 billion bushels, with ending stocks seen around the 590 million level. Canada analysts are saying that as many as 3.0 million acres intended for spring grain (mostly wheat) and canola planting were lost due to wet weather. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.36 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.57 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.40, unchanged.