Chicago Markets Recover Some Of Friday's Steep Losses
14/07/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the best grains on the deferred positions. This could probably be attributed to a correction from Friday night's steep looses. Weekly export inspections of 115,280 MT beat expectations of 30,000 – 75,000 MT. Year to date inspections are now 42.8 MMT. Safras e Mercado said that as of Friday Brazil has sold 82% of their 2013/14 bean crop versus 84% a year ago and in line with the five year average. A Porto Alegre marketing analyst was said to have estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean planted area at 76.5 million acres, up 2.9% versus 2013/14. CitiGroup forecast the Q4 average price of US soybeans at $10.50/bushel. The USDA held pat on their soybean crop condition ratings, pegging 72% of the crop as good/excellent (although there was a subtle one point increase in the excellent category). This is said to be the highest rating in 20 years. A year ago 65% of the crop was rated good/excellent. They said that 41% of the crop is blooming versus 24% a week ago and the 5-year average of 37% and compared to 24% this time last year. "With beans blooming earlier, we could be adding more pods yet this will put a little more pressure on end of July weather to see normal rainfall to support early pod fill," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $12.95, down 3/4 cent; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.86 1/4, up 11 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $421.50, down $0.30; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 36.75, up 4 points.
Corn: The corn market closed mixed, lower at the front end but a little higher on new crop. Weekly export inspections of 926,329 MT were in line with trade expectations. Year to date exports are now 40 MMT. A Porto Alegre marketing analyst was said to estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 total corn planted area at 38.8 million acres, down 0.1% versus 2013/14. Israel are tendering for 108,000 MT of optional origin corn for Sept-Oct shipment. CitiGroup forecast the Q4 average price of US corn at $3.70/bushel. The USDA increased their estimate for the proportion of the 2014 US corn crop rated good/excellent from 75% to 76%, up 10 points versus 12 months ago. As with soybeans, this is the highest rating for corn at this point in the season since 1994, and one that Benson Quinn said was "almost unimaginable for this time of the year." The USDA said that 34% of the crop was at the silking stage, up from 15% last week (and also compared to 15% this time last year). This is one point ahead of the 5-year average. China continues it's "hard line" stance on GMO corn. The China Times apparently reported over the weekend that China may reject new types of GMO corn this year due to safety concerns. The USDA forecast a record Chinese corn crop of 222 MMT on Friday. The Chinese government continue to attempt to "clear the decks" of substantial volumes of state-owned corn reserves. Their stance on GMO will likely remain tough whilst they try to offload these. Jul 14 Corn closed at $3.90 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.81 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, with the thinly traded and expiring Jul 14 contracts putting in some "off the wall" closes. Weekly export inspections were a bit disappointing at 377,520 MT versus 470,372 MT a week ago. The marketing year to date total is now 2.7 MMT versus 3.75 MMT this time a year ago. Israel are tendering for 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Aug-Oct shipment. Lebanon bought 7,000 MT of Black Sea origin milling wheat. Indonesian buyers were also said to have bought Black Sea milling wheat. Russia, Ukraine and Romania all remain active in the new crop export market. CitiGroup forecast the Q4 average price of US wheat at $5.10/bushel. China’s National Bureau of Statistics estimated China’s 2014 summer grain crop at 136.6 MMT, up 3.6% versus 131.85 MMT in 2013. Russia's grain harvest now stands at 17.9 MMT, including 13.3 MMT of wheat. Russian wheat yields are said to be averaging a 12% increase on this time last year. The USDA estimated the 2014 US winter wheat harvest at 69% done versus 57% a week ago, 66% a year ago and 68% for the 5-year average. They said that the top producing state of Kansas is now 90% done. Spring wheat rated good/excellent was left at 70%, the same as last week and also matching that of a year ago. They estimated that 69% of the crop was headed, up from 47% a week ago, one point ahead of the 5-year average and two up on a year ago. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.46 1/4, up 10 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.39 1/4, up 11 1/4 cents.
