EU Grains: Same Story Different Day
14/07/14 -- EU grains markets finished mostly lower again, extending the recent theme. Nov 14 London wheat set a fresh contract lifetime low, and also finished at a fresh lowest close for a front month in almost 4 years.
The day finished with Nov 14 London wheat down GBP0.85/tonne at GBP129.70/tonne, Nov 14 Paris wheat ended EUR1.75/tonne lower at EUR178.75/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was down EUR1.50/tonne at EUR167.50/tonne, whilst Aug 14 Paris rapeseed managed a EUR0.25/tonne rise to EUR331.50/tonne although all other months were lower.
As well as London wheat setting various significant lows, this was also the lowest front month close on Paris wheat since November 2011 as the future ended the day below critical long-term support at EUR180/tonne. A sustained period below this level would be seen as very bearish. In addition this was the lowest front month close on Paris corn since November 2013.
Harvest pressure, and the outlook for bumper EU and global grain and oilseed production in 2014/15, together with a delayed reaction to Friday night's sharply lower close in Chicago, all conspired to drive European markets to fresh lows.
The Russian grain harvest now stands at 17.9 MMT, with average yields up 14% on this time a year ago at 3.53 MT/ha. Wheat accounts for 13.3 MMT of that total off 14.8% of the intended area, with yields of 3.6 MT/ha representing a 12% increase on 2013. Barley accounts for a further 2.4 MMT off 7.4% of the planned area. Russian growers have also harvested 246 TMT of rapeseed off 12.4% of the planned area.
Belarus forecast that they would harvest a record 10 MMT grain harvest this year.
Oil World estimated the 2014 EU-28 rapeseed crop at 22.7 MMT versus a previous estimate of 22.4 MMT and up 7% compared to the 2013 crop of 21.2 MMT.
They see production in Germany at 5.9 MMT versus 5.8 MMT in 2013, with France contributing a further 5.2 MMT, up 18% versus 4.4 MMT a year ago.
The 2014 Polish rapeseed crop this year will amount to 2.8 MMT, the same as last year. The UK will be Europe's fourth largest producing nation with a crop of 2.5 MMT, a 19% rise on 2.1 MMT a year ago, they added.
Grain exports out of the Black Sea are starting to pick up. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 586,000 MT of grain between Jul 1st – Jul 11th. Russian grain exports for the period Jul 1st - Jul 9th were 466,000 MT.
Ukraine corn was said to be offered at EUR164/tonne CIF Northern Spain for November shipment, that's the equivalent of around GBP131/tonne including shipping costs. Ukraine new crop corn offers FOB the Black Sea are now said to be down to $195/tonne, which is less than GBP115/tonne.
