Nogger's Blog

08/07/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans crashed lower for a seventh straight session, with the front end bearing the brunt of losses. Jul 14 beans have now fallen more than $1/bushel since last Monday's USDA stocks and acreage report, whilst meal is down more than $30 during that time. Last night's statement from the USDA that 72% of the 2014 US soybean crop is in good to excellent condition is also weighing on prices, as fund money appears to be scrambling to get out of their bean longs before the harvest kicks off in the Deep South only a month from now. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 5,000 soybean contracts on the day. US weather maintains a non-threatening outlook. "Forecasts remain favourable for crop development with a mix of sunshine, normalish temps and scattered showers to benefit areas that simply haven’t seen dry or hot conditions to this point. A slightly drier pattern may benefit soybeans that have had too much moisture," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Bumper rapeseed production in the EU may curb demand for soybeans here. Strategie Grains forecast a record EU-28 rapeseed crop of 22.5 MMT, up 700 TMT on their previous estimate and 6.6% above output last year. The French Farm Ministry forecast a rapeseed crop there of 5.217 MMT, a 19.4% increase on last year's production of only 4.37 MMT. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.29 3/4, down 33 1/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.16 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $437.30, down $6.40; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.80, down 56 points.

Corn: The corn market ended with losses of around 1-2 cents. Fund selling was estimated at something like a net 5,000 lots on the day. As with beans, the US weather outlook is generally viewed as non-threatening. Last night's news that 75% of the US crop is in good to excellent condition weighs, as this is said to be the highest rating in 20 years at this point. "Expect a mix of light showers, sunshine and normal temps to continue as the bulk of the corn crop pollinates," said Benson Quinn Commodities. One month more of those kind of conditions and the crop could largely be made. There's now talk of average US 2014 corn yields of close to 166 bu/acre this year. Russia said that it had exported a record 4 MMT of corn in 2013/14. Ukraine said that it had exported 169 TMT of corn in the first week of the 2014/15 marketing campaign. Current forecasts suggest that they may harvest something fairly close to last season's record 30.9 MMT crop again in 2014, despite all the early season doom and gloom. The French Ministry pegged the 2013 corn crop there at a shade over 15 MMT. They haven't yet released a forecast for production this year. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.08 1/4, down 1 cent; Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.98 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, but mostly lower. Egypt are testing the water again with an overnight tender for wheat for late August shipment. They bought three cargoes of Romanian and one of Russian origin last week. The price paid was said to be around the $252/tonne FOB mark, with around a further $10-11/tonne freight on top. US wheat was comfortably outpriced, and probably will be again this time round. Russia's Ag Ministry said that the country has harvested 6.1 MMT of wheat so far this season, off 6.4% of the planned area. Yields are said to be up 17% on year ago levels. They also said that Russia exported 25.373 MMT of grain in 2013/14, a 61.8% increase on the previous season. Wheat accounted for 18.3 MT of that total. ProZerno said that Russian new crop milling wheat prices should range RUB6,800-7,500/tonne ex farm, around GBP116-128/tonne. Russian 12.5% milling wheat is said to be offered in the market at around the equivalent of GBP147/tonne FOB the Black Sea, around GBP10/tonne cheaper than German origin FOB the Baltic. The French Ministry estimated the 2014 soft wheat crop there at 36.51 MMT, a 1% decrease on last year. French customs data said that France had exported 859,000 MT of wheat outside the EU in May, with volumes dominated by shipments to Algeria who accounted for 623,381 MT of that total. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.45 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.75, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 14 MGEX wheat closed at $6.52, down 5 cents.