New Lifetime Lows For London Wheat

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:54 | Categorized as

08/07/14 -- EU grains closed mixed, with new crop Nov 14 London wheat closing GBP0.20/tonne lower at GBP133.00/tonne, Nov 14 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR183.25/tonne, Aug 14 Paris corn was up EUR1.25/tonne to EUR171.50/tonne and Aug 14 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.50/tonne firmer at EUR335.75/tonne.

Nov 14 London wheat set a new lifetime contract low of GBP132.00/tonne, but Nov 14 Paris wheat managed to hold above the key level of EUR180.00/tonne. There are still enough concerns about wheat quality around in Eastern Europe and the FSU to support that - at least for now.

The EU Commission said that Europe exported a record 42 MMT of grain in 2013/14, including 29 MMT of soft wheat, a 43% increase on the 5-year average. They said that barley exports were 32% above the norm at 8.5 MMT. Even so, 2013/14 EU-28 grain ending stocks were placed 4.7 MMT up on year ago levels at 32.5 MMT.

They also estimated the 2014/15 EU-28 grain crop at 303 MMT, up 1 MMT on last year and 6% above the 5-year average.

Russia said that it had now harvested 9.9 MMT of grains, including 6.1 MMT of wheat off 1.6 million hectares. Wheat yields are averaging 3.78 MT/ha, a 17% rise on this time last year. They've also harvested 2.0 MMT of barley off 531k ha, with yields averaging 3.7 MT/ha, a 10% increase on 2013.

The Russian Ministry said that the country finished 2013/14 exporting 25.373 MMT of grain, a 61.8% increase on the previous season. Wheat accounted for 18.279 MMT of that total, with corn exports at 4.052 MMT and those for barley at 2.705 MMT.

Belarus said that they are expecting a record grain harvest in 2014, beating the previous all time high of 8.7 MMT produced in 2012 and "far exceeding" the 7.6 MMT output of last year.

Ukraine said that they had exported 358 TMT of grains in the first week of the new 2014/15 season, including 171 TMT of barley and 169 TMT of corn. They've also loaded a further 86 TMT onto vessels waiting to sail, the Ministry added.

Strategie Grains increased their forecast for the 2014 EU-28 rapeseed crop from 21.8 MMT to a record 22.5 MMT, a 6.6% increase on last year. The French Ministry said that they would produce a crop of 5.2 MMT this year, a 19% rise versus 2013.

Russian 12.5% milling wheat is said to be offered around $252/tonne FOB deep water ports on the Black Sea, the equivalent of around GBP147/tonne. Ukraine new crop corn is in the market at around $198-200/tonne FOB, circa GBP116-117/tonne.