Chicago Corn And Beans Modestly Higher, Wheat Down Again
15/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little higher. Weekend frost damage in the Midwest was not thought likely to have been too severe, and there's no more in the forecast for the next couple of weeks. The USDA announced 118,000 MT of beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment. The NOPA August crush came in at 110.6 million bushels versus trade expectations of 111.6 million and compared to the July crush of 119.6 million. Dr Cordonnier said that soybean planting in Brazil is likely to start today - the first day permitted by the government in an effort to combat the spread of Asian Rust. August rains mean that soil conditions are good to begin sowing fast maturing beans that could be ready to harvest by the end of the year, he said. This could mean that there's more new crop Brazilian beans on the market in January than normal, shortening the window of opportunity for the upcoming record US soybean crop. Safras forecast the 2014/15 Brazilian soybean crop at a new record 95.9 MMT, up 10.6% from last season and versus the USDA's 94 MMT estimate. South Korea bought 55,000 MT of South American soymeal at prices said to be around $20/tonne under US material. The Argentine government said that farmers there are still holding 21.5 MMT of 2013/14 soybeans back from the market. Weekly export inspections for US beans came in at just over 255 TMT. After the close crop condition ratings were left unchanged at a high 72%. The USDA said that 24% of the crop is dropping leaves, up from 12% a week ago but behind the 5-year average of 32% at this time. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.89 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.97 1/2, up 5 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $338.80, up $0.30; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.27, up 72 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher on what looks like short-covering. There was some talk of the USDA dropping crop condition ratings later in the afternoon. They did not however, leaving their estimate at a historically high 74% good to excellent. Their other data all highlighted that crop development is behind schedule. In their first harvest progress report they said that nationally 4% of the crop has been harvested versus 9% for the 5-year average. They said that 27% of the crop is mature, up from 15% a week ago but behind 39% normally at this time. The crop is 82% dented versus 85% normally. In other news the USDA announced 120,000 MT of corn sold to Mexico for 2015/16 shipment. Dr Cordonnier said that Brazilian growers getting started with early fast maturing soybean plantings would allow them to also get their safrinha corn crop sown in a timely manner. Despite low prices, Brazil's 2014/15 corn crop is still expected to be a large one at 77.8 MMT, according to Safras. China are still offering large volumes of its corn surplus up for auction on a weekly basis. Last week they sold 943 TMT out of a 5 MMT offering. Oil World said that the US exported 7.2 MMT of DDGS between Jan-July, up 48% from a year ago. They said that exports in July alone were a record 1.17 MMT, with China taking around half of that volume. That would have been prior to them stating that they will not now accept DDGS shipments from the US containing traces of MIR 162 corn, so these volumes could drop off sharply in the second half of the year. Certainly some of the volume earmarked for China has now been redirected to Europe. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.43, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.55, up 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, unable to buy a rally, even with the corn market firmer. SovEcon raised their forecast for the Russian 2014/15 grain crop from 98 MMT to a rather large 104-106 MMT in clean weight, the second largest of the post Soviet era. Wheat production was increased from 58 MMT to 60 MMT. The Russian Ministry said that 68.5% of the grain harvest was now in, producing a bunker weight crop in excess of 85 MMT so far, which makes this new target look achievable. Rabobank estimated Australia’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 24.0 MMT. Traders say that crop development in Western Australia state is 2-3 weeks ahead of normal. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that 99% (4.476 million ha) of the planned 4.516 million ha of winter wheat in the country had now been planted. That's up sharply from plantings of only around 3.7 million ha a year ago. Wetness has been the problem getting this year's Argentine crop planted, so a forecast dry spell for the next 10 days will be welcomed. Saudi Arabia bought 610 TMT of hard wheat of optional US, Canadian, South American, EU or Australian origin. Ukrainian grain stocks were 23.4 MMT as of September 1, up 15% from a year ago, according to the State Stats Service. The USDA said that the US spring wheat harvest had made some good progress in the past week, to 74% complete, up from 58% a week ago, although still lagging the 5-year average of 86%. They said that winter wheat plantings were 12% done, one point ahead of the 5-year average. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.00 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.86 1/4, down 7 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.68 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents.
