Nogger's Blog

16/09/14 -- On the Jock Referendum. According to the news it's too close to call, on a knife edge, could go either way and as finely balanced as Kylie's pert little bum cheeks.

Or is it? The bookies (rarely at the head of the stupid queue asking for a glass hammer or a left-handed screwdriver) don't seem to think so. No sireeee, far from it.

Take a look at the latest betting on which way the vote will go here at oddschecker.

For those of you who only ever frequent the bookies on Grand National day let me explain. The chances of a "yes" vote winning this particular two horse race are around 3/1 against (also know as the outsider or rag) ie. if you put a pound on "yes" and you're right you win three pounds, plus you get your pound back. That's English pounds we're talking by the way, we don't accept that stupid Jock money down here, this is England.

The chances on a "no" vote winning are around 1/4 (this is what we call the screaming red hot favourite) so your hard earned English pound wins you 25 English pennies if that's correct.

In other words, the bookies seem to think that the vote is about as finely balanced as having having to chose between Kylie and Ann Widdecombe who you'd most like to play Where Shall We Hide Mr Sausage Next with.

Which makes recent sterling weakness look rather false does it not? Don't forget that the pound fell 3 cents against the dollar and 2 euro cents against the single currency last Monday alone, when it was reported that the "yes" vote had the lead in the polls for the first time.

And if the pound is undervalued and in for a correction, what does that mean for London wheat? Blimey, I never thought I'd be sat here thinking that GBP113/tonne was a selling opportunity!