Chicago Grains Down Again

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:02 | Categorized as

25/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite weekly export sales of almost 2.6 MMT. This was seen as "old news" as they mostly related to the recent "showcase" deal signed with a Chinese delegation a couple of weeks ago. US weather remains non-threatening. MDA CropCast left their US soybean production estimate unchanged at 3.819 billion bushels. Reuters reported that soybean planting in Brazil's Parana state at 6% complete versus only 2% a year ago, following good recent rains. Mato Grosso is only 1% done though as the dry season there has yet to break. The Brazilian Ag Ministry estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop at a record 90-96 MMT. The IGC raised their forecast for the global soybean crop in 2014/15 to a new record 310 MMT, up 6 MMT from previously. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.22 3/4, down 14 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.31 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $312.40, down $4.00; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.62, unchanged.

Corn: The corn market closed lower. Weekly export sales came in at 1.1 MMT, at the top end of expectations. MDA CropCast were unchanged with their forecast for this year's US corn crop at 14.426 billion bushels. The IGC raised their forecast for this year's corn crop by 1 MMT to 974 MMT, which would be 9 MMT below last season's record. Huge US corn yields are what is hanging over the market. "Unless something changes, the yield reports will continue to offer resistance. So far, 'off the charts' is the best description. While reports of yields tend to be 200+, 250+ etc, the trade never hears of yields that would drag the average down. I don’t believe news of this nature will go stale until we are deeper into harvest," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The Brazilian Ag Ministry said that they are to buy 1-1.5 MMT of domestic corn for public stocks. UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 corn crop at 25.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 27.0 MMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.26, down 3 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.39, down 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower. The IGC raised their global wheat production forecast by 4 MMT from last month to an all time high 717 MMT. "The world carryover is placed at a five-year high and, with gains in the EU, US and the Black Sea region, major exporters’ stocks are expected to increase for a second successive season," they said. "Seeding of the 2015/16 northern hemisphere winter crop is underway. Total world area is tentatively projected to increase slightly year on year," they added. Weekly export sales came in at a relatively modest 396,300 MT. Qatar bought 40,000 MT of Russian origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment. A Greek importer bought 3,000 MT of Ukrainian milling wheat for October shipment. The Max Rubner Institute said that Germany’s 2014 wheat protein content is 13.1%, unchanged from a year ago. UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2014 grain crop at 57.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 58.5 MMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.74, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64 1/4, unchanged; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.36 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.