EU Grains Closing Comments

25/09/14 -- EU grains closed mixed, with London wheat falling to fresh lows.

The day ended with Nov 14 London wheat down GBP0.45/tonne at GBP109.05/tonne, and Nov 14 Paris wheat closing down EUR2.00/tonne to EUR150.75/tonne. Nov 14 Paris corn was up EUR1.50/tonne to EUR136.00/tonne and Nov 14 Paris rapeseed rose EUR2.25/tonne to EUR317.00/tonne.

The International Grains Council again raised their forecast for by world grain production by 8 MMT to 1,983 MMT, now only 10 MMT lower than last year’s record. Wheat production is now seen at an all-time high 717 MMT, up 4 MMT from last month and last year.

"World total grains consumption is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year, with much of the increase for animal feed, particularly corn. However, strong competition is expected from heavy supplies of alternative feeds, including weather-damaged wheat," they said.

UkrAgroConsult said that they were "preparing to lower by 1.1 MMT to 57.4 MMT its forecast for the Ukraine grains harvest," according to The reduction is due to lower corn production, now pegged at 25.9 MMT, although that's still the second highest on record.

"In our opinion, some 25% of corn plantings in Donetsk region and some 30% in Luhansk region have been damaged by the warfare and are unsuitable for harvesting," they said.

Looking ahead to winter plantings in the region. MDA CropCast said that "rains increased across central and eastern Ukraine, Belarus, southwestern Central Region, and western North Caucasus this past week, which significantly improved moisture for winter wheat establishment. Additional improvements are expected in Volga Valley and south central North Caucasus this week. However, some dryness will likely linger in far northern North Caucasus and northwestern Ukraine."

Russia said that it had now harvested 93 MMT of grains off 77.4% of the planned area. The wheat harvest is now up to 56 MMT in bunker weight, and the barley crop stands at 19.9 MMT. Corn production is 3.9 MMT off 29% of the planned area.

Winter grain planting is now complete on 10.5 million ha, or 63.5% of plan, they added.

Ukraine said that it had now harvested over 40 MT of grains off 73% of the planned area. The corn harvest is 19% complete at nearly 4 MMT, they said.

Brussels confirmed that they'd issued 613 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this past week, taking the marketing year to date total to 6.4 MMT versus 6.2 MMT a year ago.

EU corn import licences now stand at 2.3 MMT versus 959 TMT a year ago.