Chicago Grains End Mostly A Little Lower
23/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. Oil World estimated the 2014/15 global soybean crop at 310.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 306.7 MMT and up 9% compared to the 2013/14 production of 285.2 MMT. They have global soybean use at 292.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 290.2 MMT and compared to 2013/14 use of 274.8 MMT. That puts global soybean ending stocks at a record 89.1 MMT versus a previous estimate of 86.4 MMT and compared to a 2013/14 ending stock estimate of 70.3 MMT. They see world 2014/15 rapeseed production at 67.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 68.7 MMT and compared to 2013/14 production of 70.0 MMT. The Argentine Ag Secretary estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 soybean planted area at 20.0 million ha, matching last year's record. "Big yield talk and perfect 2-week weather forecast weighed with early harvest yield reports coming out of MN in the 50s despite the season’s adversity while temps look to be in the 80s this weekend for SD, ND and MN," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.36 1/4, down 2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.43 3/4, down 2 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $317.10, down $2.30; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.23, up 23 points.
Corn: The corn market closed lower. The benign weather outlook for the US will "hopefully finish off the corn crop and advance soybean harvest," said Benson Quinn. "Extended weather forecasts point towards more moisture. The 6 to 10 day forecast indicates normal to above normal temps for most of the country. Look for a drier weather profile to prevail in the eastern corn, while the western corn belt is expected to see more shower activity during this time frame," they added. Various pundits are suggesting that US farmers may ultimately have planted 2-3 million acres less corn than current USDA estimates suggest. Bumper yields may negate at least some of that loss though. The UAE are in the market for 25,000 MT of optional origin corn. Argentina's corn plantings are seen falling from 6.1 million ha to 5.6 million this year. MARS raised its forecast for EU corn yields from 7.53 MT/ha to 7.59 MT/ha. "Yield prospects for grain maize have further improved; forecasts are 12.5 % above the level of last year and 11.8% above the last five year’s average," they said. Ukraine said that their corn harvest was 17% complete at 3.43 MMT. Russia said that their corn harvest was 28% done at 3.8 MMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.25 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.38 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with fresh news lacking. Russia's wheat harvest is now 76% done at 55.2 MMT in bunker weight. Winter plantings for the 2015 harvest are already quite well advanced, being completed on 10.2 million ha compared to only 7.0 million this time a year ago. Ukraine's winter plantings are also said to be going well at 2.0 million ha, or 27% of plan. Wheat accounts for the vast majority (1.94 million ha) of that area. Recent heavy rains in Ukraine have created excellent conditions for winter grain sowing, according to the state weather service. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country has exported 7.8 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 23rd, an increased of 48% from a year ago. MARS increased their forecast for EU soft wheat yields from 5.85 MT/ha to 5.88 MT/ha, a 1.1% rise compared to last year and 5.5% above the prior 5-year average. Tunisia's Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested 2.34 MMT of grains this year versus only 1.3 MMT a year ago. They said 2014/15 grain imports expected to drop by 80% in 2015. United Arab Emirates seek 107,000 MT of optional origin wheat along with 30,000 MT of feed barley. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.76, down 3/4 cent; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.62, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.34 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents.
