EU Grains Mixed, Weak Euro Supports Paris Market
Paris grains were supported by the week euro. One pound tonight buys you almost 1.28 euros, the best return since July 2012.
FranceAgriMer said that only 46% of the French wheat crop has a hagberg falling number of 220 or more versus 99% a year ago. More than a quarter of the crop (27%) has hagberg levels below 140, and 19% of it has a falling number between 170-220.
They said that 17 MMT, or 45%, of this year's crop is only "third grade" (essentially feed wheat). A year ago that volume was only 4.3 MMT (11.7%).
They added that the average protein level of French wheat this year was 11.1%, with an average specific weight of 76.3 kg/hl.
Ukraine's Ag Minister said that this year's grain crop would total 60 MMT versus last season's record 63 MMT. The total doesn't include Crimea, or production in parts of the war-torn Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Recent heavy rains have slowed up the pace of winter plantings in Ukraine, with 2.3 million ha of the intended 6 million ha sown so far.
The rains have improved soil moisture conditions, although they also mean that some corn is being cut at 25% moisture, adding drying costs that the Ukraine farmer can ill afford. Ukraine corn prices FOB the Black Sea have now tumbled to just $161/tonne.
The Russian harvest now stands at 92.4 MMT off 76.5% of the intended area. Wheat accounts for 55.5 MMT of that total off 77.2% of plan.
Winter planting progress in Russia has been brisk, with 10.4 million ha (63%) of the planned 16 million ha already sown versus 7.3 million ha a year ago.
Russian exports are showing signs of slowing up. Rusagrotrans said that Russia's grain exports in October would fall to around 3 MMT from 3.8 MMT this month. Russia shipped out a record 7.9 MMT of grains in the first two months (Jul/Aug) of the marketing year.
Russia will begin its intervention purchase programme next week (Sept 30), adding a bit more domestic demand, which is already strong due to increased livestock feeding due to retaliatory Russian sanctions against EU and US meat imports.
Ukraine has also been exporting at a frenetic pace despite the conflict in the country. Jul 1 - Sep 18 exports were 7.6 MMT, a 19% increase versus a year ago. That included 2.7 MMT of barley, more than the entire volume shipped in 2013/14 and 200 TMT more than the USDA's forecast for the whole of this season.
Kazakhstan's harvest is said to be 60% complete, which is 7 points behind last year's pace.
