EU Grains Trade Lower, Consolidating Recent Gains

09/10/14 -- EU grains trade mostly lower, consolidating from recent gains, on rising world stockpiles and an abundance of competing raw materials.

In afternoon dealings Nov 14 London wheat is down GBP0.55/tonne to GBP113.10/tonne, Nov 14 Paris wheat trades EUR2.00/tonne lower at EUR158.25/tonne, Nov 14 Paris corn has fallen EUR1.75/tonne to EUR139.00/tonne, whilst Nov 14 Paris rapeseed is EUR1.00/tonne easier at EUR327.00/tonne.

FranceAgriMer yesterday pegged French wheat carryout at the end of 2014/15 at 4.416 MMT - a 10 year high and 88% more than at the end of 2013/14. Despite the rise in French wheat production this year, quality issues mean that exports will fall 15.6% year-on-year to 16.775 MMT, they estimated.

Competition for wheat in animal feed rations will come from barley and corn. France will export 7.35 MMT of the former (an 11% rise versus 2013/14) and 6.075 MMT of the latter (a 10.6% increase), they forecast.

Despite the rise in exports, bumper corn production this year will still see 2014/15 ending stocks rise 61% year-on-year to 3.7 MMT, they added.

Tunisia said that they will increase grain plantings for the 2015 harvest by 10% to 1.454 million hectares. Fieldwork has begun following recent rains, and winter grain planting will take place in November and December.

Russia said that it had now harvested 101.7 MMT of grains off 90.1% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 59.6 MMT of that total, with barley adding 20.7 MMT and corn a further 6.5 MMT. Harvesting of the latter is now 52.5% complete.

They also said that Russian growers had already planted winter grains for the 2015 harvest on 13.7 million hectares, or 82.5% of the Ministry target. That's up sharply from 9.1 million ha this time a year ago. Rain would now be welcome, but the forecast remains dry.

APK Inform estimated the Ukraine 2014 grain harvest at 60.6 MMT, the second largest on record after last year. That's only a relatively modest drop of 3.9% versus 2013, especially considering the loss of Crimea and the fact that some parts of the country are expected to remain unharvested.

They said that, despite the small decline in output versus last year, Jul/Sep grain exports were up 68% compared to the same period in 2013/14 at 8.5 MMT.

UkrAgroConsult estimated the Ukraine 2014 rapeseed harvest at 2.15 MMT, a fall of 8.5% on last year. Exports will decline 12.7% to 1.94 MMT, they said.