Nogger's Blog

08/10/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed slightly lower. The prospect for higher US yields and production in Friday's USDA report weighs, but the late nature of the harvest and weather forecasts that aren't too friendly as far as rapid progress to be made are supportive factors. Lanworth forecast US soybean yields at 47.9 bu/acre, which is slightly above the average trade expectation of 47.6 bu/acre for Friday's report and up from 47.1 bu/acre previously. They now see production at 3.947 billion bushels, up from 3.880 billion previously. The USDA attaché in Argentina estimated 2014/15 soybean plantings at 21.0 million ha, up 1 million ha from 2013/14 and with production next year at a record 57 MMT. They also see carryover stocks from this season at a hefty 12.6 MMT due to Argentine farmers holding onto beans as a hedge against inflation and the weak peso. The Argentine cabinet chief is quoted on Reuters as saying that the cash-strapped government will use "all the tools" available to it to force farmers to sell their beans, without specifically saying what they intend to do. Argentine soybean exports are currently taxed at the rate of 35%. Oil World estimated Ukraine’s 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.2 MMT versus 2.4 MMT a year ago. They see exports at 1.9 MMT versus 2.2 MMT a year ago. The USDA attaché in China estimated China’s 2014/15 soybean imports at 72.0 MMT. Northern Brazil remains largely too dry to plant soybeans just yet. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 500-900 TMT. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.35, down 5 3/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.43 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Oct 14 Soybean Meal closed at $329.80, up $2.80; Oct 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.88, down 8 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents higher on harvest delays. "Trade was orderly and volume was much smaller than the previous session," noted Benson Quinn Commodities. "Current weather forecasts aren’t pointing at an impending crisis, but merit some attention as an area stretching from the southern plains through Missouri, into S Illinois and along the Ohio River valley is slated for potentially heavy rains through the weekend and into next week," they said. Lanworth estimated US corn yields at 175.5 bu/acre versus 174.9 bu/acre previously and the USDA's 171.7 bu/acre in September. They now see the 2014 US corn crop at 14.647 billion bushels compared to their previous forecast of 14.596 billion and the USDA's September estimate of 14.395 billion. You can put the word "record" in front of all those numbers as this year's crop goes off the chart compared to everything that's gone before. FranceAgriMer estimated French 2014/15 corn ending stocks at 3.7 MMT, up 61% versus 2013/14. They said that France had exported 568,000 MT of corn in July versus 650,000 MT a year previously. APK Inform estimated the Russian corn crop at 12.3 MMT, a 6% rise compared to last year. IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 corn crop at 12.7 MMT. The Russian Ministry said that this year's corn harvest was 52% complete at 6.4 MMT. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production up 20,000 barrels/day. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are in the region of 550-750 TMT. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.43 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.56 1/2, up 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed barely changed. South Korea bought 81,000 MT of Australian wheat for March shipment, along with 25,600 MT of US milling wheat for Feb-March shipment. Dr Cordonnier said that the price of wheat in Brazil is below the cost of production, which may be discouraging growers there to apply sprays to combat diseases due to excessive wetness due to cost reasons. In addition there's 350 TMT of old crop wheat still sat in government silos in the midst of harvesting of their new crop. A Brazilian wheat auction today attracted little interest, with less than half of the offered 140,000 MT finding a buyer. Some analysts are now estimating the Australian wheat crop at only 21-22 MMT versus 27 MMT last year and the USDA's current 25.5 MMT forecast. IKAR cut their Russian wheat production forecast to 58.5 MMT from 60 MMT previously. The Russian Ag Ministry say that the country has already harvested 59.5 MMT of wheat in bunker weight off 90.6% of the planned area. They also say that winter grain plantings are already complete on 13.4 million ha versus only 8.7 million a year ago. SovEcon noted that much of the planted area remains dry. "This is an issue, in that it may result in weak winter grain emergence, and increased winterkill losses," they told Agrimoney. Russia's intervention purchase program is off to a stuttering start, with only 83,680 MT bought so far. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are in the region of 400-600 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.07 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.86 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.65, down 1/2 cent.