Nogger's Blog

26/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans broke the trend of generally closing the pre-Thanksgiving Day session higher, by ending around 2-4 cents lower on the day, despite the USDA reporting the sale of 120 TMT of US soybeans to China for 2014/15 delivery. Nearby meal closed sharply higher, and is back up above $400/tonne and now sits at a 5-month high ahead of Friday's first notice day. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there had only so far committed 70% of their 2013/14 soybean crop and have less than 3% of their 2014/15 production sold. The USDA's attache in Brazil revised their estimate for the 2014/15 soybean crop there to 92 MMT, which is 2 MMT below the official USDA figure. This would still be a record volume, and is up 6% on last year. The reduction is based on a lower national yield than previously expected. Brazilian soybean exports in 2014/15 are seen unchanged from this season, and the attache's previous estimate at 47 MMT. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.47, down 4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.52 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $401.60, up $11.00; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.48, up 6 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher, helped by the US Energy Dept announcing record weekly ethanol production of 982,000 barrels/day last week, a 12,000 bpd rise on the previous week. "The technical structure of the market hints at higher prices before the corn market is ready to relax," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that local farmers had sold 87% of their 2013/14 corn crop and 9% of their 2014/15 crop. Ukraine said that it's 2014 corn harvest was now 95% done at 26.17 MMT. Russia said that it's corn harvest was 93% done at 11.1 MMT. South Korea's MFG bought 126,000 MT of optional origin corn for March shipment. China has launched it's 2014/15 state stockpiling effort. They are said to be offering to pay the equivalent of around $9.35/bushel, so they should find plenty of willing sellers! Some analysts say that they will buy around 40 MMT of home grown corn between now and the end of April. Fund money was estimated as being a net buyer of around 3-4,000 contracts on the day. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher across the board, with the best gains in Chicago. EU wheat prices rose to 4 month highs, supporting US levels. South Korea's Samyang bought 31,000 MT of US wheat for April-May shipment. Pakistan cancelled a tender for 20,000 MT of wheat. Bangladesh tendered for 50,000 MT of wheat of optional origin for January shipment. Ethiopia tendered for 70,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Russia said that it's 2014 grain harvest had limped to 98% done at 110.2 MMT. That total includes 62.3 MMT of wheat. Siberia is 95% done and the Urals region is now 97% complete, they said. Some question the accuracy of this data. One report I read suggested that 30% of Siberian crops are under 0.5m of snow. Ukraine said that its grain harvest was 98% done at 61.7 MMT. Kazakhstan said that its grain harvest was 96.5% done at 18.3 MMT in bunker weight. They expect a clean weight final harvest of 17.6 MMT, and exports of 7 MMT in 2014/15, the Ag Ministry said. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that local farmers had sold 79% of their 2013/14 wheat crop, along with 24% of their 2014/15 production. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.62, up 10 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.21, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.98 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents.