Nogger's Blog

26/11/14 -- EU grains are mixed heading into the close of play. Jan 15 London wheat is currently unchanged at GBP131.00/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat is up EUR1.00/tonne at EUR181.50/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn is down EUR0.50/tonne to EUR152.75/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed is EUR2.25/tonne lower at EUR342.50/tonne.

Concerns over the state of winter crops in Russia and Ukraine are supporting the market, along with the high level of EU wheat exports. Rusagrotrans today cut their estimate for the 2015 Russian grain crop to 91-98 MMT from 96-104 MMT previously, citing the lack of adequate snow cover and freezing temperatures.

SovEcon meanwhile predict next year's Russian grain crop at less than 90 MMT, including wheat production of under 50 MMT.

Ukraine said that winter grain planting there is more or less complete at 7.7 million hectares, up 2% on a year ago. Crop conditions there are however less than ideal, with the Ag Ministry saying that 18% of what has emerged is in poor condition.

APK Inform said that 2014 Ukraine wheat yields were a record 3.91 MT/ha on average. They predict grain exports this season at 32.2 MMT, including 10.35 MMT of wheat, 3.34 MMT of barley and 18.1 MMT of corn.

Ukraine's grain exports so far this calendar year (Jan/Oct) are 25 MMT, a 45% rise on a year ago.

Kazakhstan said that they've now harvested 18.72 MMT of grains this year, on 14.753 million ha, or 98.4% of the planted area.

Bangladesh are tendering for 50 TMT of optional origin wheat. Pakistan are said to have bought 137 TMT of Canadian/Australian OSR for Jan/Mar shipment in the past few days.

MDA CropCast made no change to their forecast for world wheat production in 2015/16, they see the EU-28 crop at 146.4 MT versus 150 MMT this season.

Serbia's Chamber of Commerce estimated their 2014 corn yields at a record 7.5 MT/ha, with production coming in at 8.5 MMT. That potentially leaves them with an exportable surplus of 3.5 MMT, up from the 1.85 MMT exported in 2013/14.