Nogger's Blog

25/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal finished with strong gains in "Turnaround Tuesday" style trade. The Congressional Budget Office estimated US soybean plantings at 81 million acres in 2015, which is under the 84.8 million planted this year and also well below current trade forecasts of around 87-88 million. Chinese industry analysts forecast the country's December soybean imports at a large 7.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 7.0 MMT. They also increased their outlook for January to 6.9 MMT versus 5.8 MMT previously. South Korea's MFG bought 53,000 MT of what was said to be South American origin soymeal for Feb/March shipment. Soybean planting in South America has largely caught up with the normal pace after a slow start. AgRural said that as of Friday Brazilian farmers have planted 76% of their 2014/15 crop, up from 63% a week ago and versus 79% a year ago. Safras e Mercado said that as of Friday Mato Grosso soybean planting was now 95% complete. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that soybean planting there was 36% complete as of Friday versus 44% done a year ago. Oil World estimated global soybean production at a record 309.1 MMT in 2014/15, up from a previous estimate of 307.8 MMT and up sharply compared to the 2013/14 crop of 284.8 MMT even if somewhat lower than the USDA's 312 MMT forecast. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.51, up 17 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.56 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $390.60, up $15.70; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.42, up 22 points.

Corn: The corn market reversed yesterday's losses, closing around 6-7 cents higher. "In addition to short covering, it felt like there was some new money coming into the corn market today," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The Congressional Budget Office suggested 2015 US corn plantings at 90 million acres versus 91.6 million this year. South Korea's NOFI bought 93,000 MT of US corn for February shipment. Russia said that it's 2014 corn harvest was 92.2% complete at 11.0 MMT versus 9.6 MMT this time a year ago. Ag Canada estimated corn production there this year at 11.4 MMT, down from last year's bumper 14.2 MMT. They see 2014/15 corn exports at 1.0 MMT versus 1.9 MMT last season. Argentina said that they'd exported 1.58 MMT of corn in September, a rise of 49% compared with a year previously. Reuters reported yields of a new variety of Chinese "super corn" called Denghai 618 had come in at a record 1,335.8 kg/mu in a 10 mu test plot, and 1,151.6 kg/mu in a 100 mu field. The former figure is the equivalent of around 20 MT/ha, and the latter more than 17 MT/ha. These are bin-busting yields if they could be replicated on a larger scale. The USDA currently has the average Chinese corn yield this year at less than 6 MT/ha. Argentina's Ag Mininstry said that as of Friday Argentine farmers have planted 42% of their 2014/15 corn crop versus 44% a year ago. The US Energy Dept will report on weekly ethanol production tomorrow. Last week's output of 970,000 barrels/day was the second highest on record. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, up 7 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains, helped by a weaker US dollar. Russian sellers continue to largely stand away from the market despite a large crop there this year. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested over 110 MMT of grain so far this season, including 62.2 MMT of wheat. Concerns over the state of newly planted Russian winter gains, mostly wheat, abound. The Russian Ag Ministry said that winter grain planting in the Stavropol region was complete on 1.9 million hectares, and that 93.6% of those crops had emerged. Of that 41.3% was said to be in good condition, 51.7% fair and 7% poor. A year ago emergence was 92.2%, with 39.1% of the crop rated good, 55.8% fair and 4.5% poor. Ukraine said that they'd exported 14.5 MMT of grains so far this season, of which 7.3 MMT was wheat, 3.7 MMT corn and 3.3 MMT barley. Argentina said that they'd exported 126 TMT of wheat in September versus only 10 TMT a year previously. Dec 13/Sep 14 wheat exports are 1.534 MMT, around half of what they were a year ago. The country is currently mid-harvest, with this year's crop expected to come in around 30% higher at 12 MMT. Reuters reported a Chinese wheat variety called "Jimai 22" had attained a yield of 802 kg/mu in trials, the equivalent of around 12 MT/ha compared to the USDA's current estimate for a national Chinese yield of 5.23 MT/ha. Ag Canada estimated this year's Canadian wheat crop (excluding durum) at 27.5 MMT, which is 10 MMT below last year's record output. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.51 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17 1/4, up 13 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.90 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents.