EU Grains Rise On Increased Export Hopes

03/02/15 -- EU grains posted some decent gains for once, aided by increased export hopes and another clean sweep for Europe in Egypt's latest tender.

At the finish, Mar 15 London wheat was up GBP3.30/tonne to GBP124.05/tonne; Mar 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.50/tonne higher at EUR186.50/tonne; Mar 15 Paris corn was EUR2.25/tonne firmer at EUR154.00/tonne; May 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR5.50/tonne to EUR354.25/tonne.

Egypt's GASC bought 300,000 MT of wheat for Mar 1-10 shipment in their latest tender, comprising of 120,000 MT of French and 180,000 MT of Romanian origin.

The EU Commission raised their forecast for EU soft wheat exports by 2 MMT to 30 MMT, which would just top last season's record 29.989 MMT. All wheat exports are now seen at 31 MMT, which is 1 MMT higher than the USDA's January forecast.

Turkey are tendering for 60,000 MT of durum wheat. Jordan are in the market for 100,000 MT each of hard wheat and feed barley.

France are reportedly currently loading 60,000 MT of feed wheat bound for Bangladesh, the largest such consignment in around 14 years. The UK are also said to be loading 50,000 MT of feed barley in Portbury destined for Japan.

Agritel estimated Russia's 2014/15 wheat exports at around 18 MMT. They'd already shipped out 17.3 MMT by Jan 21, so if they are correct then that would indicate that very little wheat will now be exported from Russia between now and the end of the season. Their new punitive export duty kicked in on Feb 1 you will recall.

Agritel see Russia now starting to major on corn exports, shipping out around 3 MMT by the end of the season versus only 1.2 MMT currently.

Rusagrotrans on the other hand forecast that Russia will export 1.1-1.2 MMT of grains in February, about half of which will be wheat.

Russia's intervention purchase programme struggles along quietly, picking up less than 20,000 MT of grain today, despite the new wheat export duty.

The USDA's FAS in Australia estimated this year's wheat crop there at 23.2 MMT, down 14% on a year ago and 800,000 MT below the current official Washington figure. They pegged this year's Australian barley crop at 7.3 MMT, which is 7% below a year ago. They forecast wheat exports at 17 MMT, an 8% decline versus 2013/14, with barley shipments at 4.5 MMT, a 30% drop on a year ago.