The Morning Vibe

03/02/15 -- The overnight grains trade higher this morning, with Globex beans currently up 7-8 cents, and with corn and wheat 2-4 cents firmer.

London wheat has opened around GBP0.50-1.00/tonne higher, with Paris wheat up EUR1.00-2.00/tonne.

Egypt are said to have imported 11.76 MMT of grains so far this season, including 6.9 MMT of wheat and 4.9 MMT of corn. They are in the market again today, with GASC tendering for wheat for Mar 1-10 shipment, with the results expected this afternoon.

Jordan are also in the market, tendering for 100,000 TMT each of hard wheat and barley.

Despite the new export duty, Russia picked up less than 20,000 MT of grain in today's latest round of intervention purchases.

The Russian Ag Ministry say that the prospect of the Feb 1 export duty spurred shippers on to export 1.7 MMT of grains in January, a record for that particular month. Jul 1 - Jan 28 exports were 22.7 MMT, a 31% rise on a year ago.

Rusagrotrans say that the country will export 1.1-1.2 MMT of grains in February, around the same as the 1.14 MMT shipped out a year ago. That total will include around 500-600,000 MT of wheat versus 680,000 MT in Feb 14, they estimate.

Officials say that winter crops in Russia's Stavropol region are 99% emerged, with 42% in good condition, almost 50% satisfactory and a little over 8% poorly established. That's similar to last year.

Not that I believe a word they say like. I'll be waiting for the results of Mike Lee's crop tour to find out what winter crop conditions in Russia and Ukraine are really like. You can find out more on Mike's blog here: Put my name down for that

France are said to currently be loading 60,000 MT of feed wheat for Bangladesh, the largest such shipment since 2000/01.

Canada's all wheat stocks as of Dec 31 are estimated at 25 MMT, down 17% on a year previously but still the second largest since 1996. Canola stocks are said to be 10.7 MMT, down 14% on a year ago but also the second largest ever.