EU Grains Mixed Despite Wheat Exports Now Seen At Record Levels
09/04/15 -- EU grains were mixed on the day with May 15 London wheat ending GBP0.80/tonne weaker at GBP119.75/tonne, May 15 Paris wheat was down EUR0.750/tonne at EUR189.2/tonne, Jun 15 Paris corn slipped EUR0.25/tonne to EUR164.00/tonne and May 15 Paris rapeseed rose EUR4.25/tonne to EUR369.50/tonne.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry reported that good spring rains mean that 99% of winter grains are in good condition, up from around 82% a couple of months ago. Private analyst Agritel aren't quite so bullish, estimating that 41.6% of winter grains to be in good condition and rating 44.3% as satisfactory, which leaves 14.1% rated as poor.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that early spring grains (mostly barley) had now been planted on 1.5 million hectares.
Rusagrotrans said that Russian 2014/15 grain ending stocks would come in at a record 15.5 MMT, including an estimated 2.1 MMT held in intervention. That would easily beat the previous all time high of 10.6 MMT, set at the end of the 2010/11 crop year - the season that Russia last introduced an outright wheat export embargo.
They went on to estimate Russian grain production at 93-98 MMT this year.
Separately, Agritel estimated 79% of Russian winter grains to be in good condition.
At home, Defra said that the wheat inclusion rate in compound feed production in February rose to 69.5% of all cereals used versus 68.2% in January. Barley's slice of the cake fell from 23.3% in January to 22.1% in February.
Late in the day, the USDA's April WASDE report raised the outlook for EU wheat exports this season by 2 MMT to a new record 33.5 MMT, which would now beat last season's all time high by almost 1.5 MMT.
"The EU has abundant supplies, freight and logistical advantages (over America) to North Africa and the Middle East, and competitive prices. France has an unusually large supply of feed-quality wheat, which is being exported to Southeast Asian markets," they said.
The report also raised Russia's export potential this season by 0.5 MMT to 20.5 MMT.
Egypt's wheat import needs were raised 0.2 MMT to 10.7 MMT as consumption is seen rising from the 18.4 MMT forecast a month ago to a new figure of 18.9 MMT.
Despite the 2 MMT hike in EU exports, ending stocks here were only lowered a little - down from the 15.82 MMT predicted a month ago to 15.33 MMT. That's because the USDA also forecast lower EU wheat consumption this season than they did in March - that was reduced from 124.5 MMT to 123.1 MMT.
EU 2014/15 barley exports were left unchanged at 7.5 MMT, with ending stocks reduced slightly to 5.44 MMT.
