Chicago Corn Ends Around 5 Cents Lower For Third Session In A Row
27/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little bit firmer, with the best gains at the front end. Meal posted decent gains, again with the nearby's benifitting the most, and oil was lower. South Korea was in the market for soymeal, with NOFI reported as buying 55 TMT of probably South American material for Aug/Sep shipment and KFA booking 50 TMT of optional origin meal. Ongoing labour disputes in Argentina, the world's largest meal exporter, are being linked to this nearby firmness. The Jul/Aug meal spread has widened from $1.50 on Apr 30 to $5.20 tonight. "The (soybean) market was overdue for a slight bounce after shedding 51 cents from the front month July contract over the last 10 sessions," said Benson Quinn. The market is pondering what the effects of an El Nino would be. The Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology are forecasting drought in the north east, but plentiful rains in the more productive centre/west and south of the country. Current overly wet conditions spreading up from the US Plains into the Midwest are also typical of an El Nino summer. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.27, up 4 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.06 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $308.10, up $6.20; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.73, down 41 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower for a third session in a row. The USDA reported strong early plantings and good crop conditions last night. The weather forecast leans warm and wet, ideal for strong crop development. Previous years with a strong El Nino signal have seen US corn yields come in well ahead of the trendline. The market is currently thinking that this might happen again in 2015. The firm US dollar remains a problem. South Africa's CEC estimated corn production there up 0.8% from previously at 9.8 MMT, although that's still the lowest output since 2007. Russia said that their corn plantings were more than 90% complete on 2.5 million ha. The weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers from the US Energy Dept are delayed a day following Monday's Memorial Day holiday and will be released tomorrow. "The market will be expecting a value similar to last week’s 958,000 barrels per day, confirming idle plants have returned to production," say Benson Quinn. The regular Thursday weekly export sales report from the USDA is also now delayed until Friday. The new crop beans:corn price ratio has risen to 2.47:1 tonight, up from 2.40:1 only last Friday. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.49 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.55 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The USDA maybe surprised a few people last night by leaving winter wheat crop conditions unchanged at 45% good to excellent. The new Russian Ag Minister said that whilst the official 2015 grain production estimate of 100 MMT remains in place, he expects that target to be beaten and output to maybe come in at around last season's 105.3 MMT. That would be quite am achievement if true, given all the problems that the country has had: poor autumn planting conditions, lack of access to credit, less than ideal spring weather, high input costs etc. One private analyst said that crop losses in Southern Russia could be 15-20% if soaking rains don't arrive soon. Topsoil there is "very dry" and only light rains are in the forecast for this week, they said. The opposite is true in Kazakhstan where spring plantings are well behind due to incessant rains - around 3-4 times the norm has fallen in the May 10-20 period, according to their National Weather Service. Brazil are forecasting above average rains for the south of the country, where the bulk of the nation's winter wheat crop is grown. That could be beneficial for yields, although too much of a good thing could cause some quality issues. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.87 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12, down 13 1/2 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.45 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.
