The Morning Grain Market News

28/05/15 -- The overnight grains are mixed, with wheat up 2-3 cents, corn around a cent higher, beans a cent either side of unchanged and meal half a dollar to a dollar easier.

Egypt's GASC are back in the market, tendering for wheat for Jul 1-10 delivery, with the results expected this afternoon at around 15.30 GMT. It will be interesting to see where Russian offers are in relation to Europe and the rest of the Black Sea.

The head of the Russian Grain Union is quoted as saying that the next "floating" tax on wheat exports being talked about from Aug 1 could reduce foreign sales next season.

He sees Russia's wheat exports this season ending up around 21 MMT (they are already past 20 MMT), but says that figure could fall to only 15-17 MMT in 2015/16. He forecasts Russia's wheat crop at 55 MMT this year, down 8% on a year ago.

SovEcon seem to broadly concur, saying that Russia's 2015/16 wheat exports could be reduced to 18 MMT due to the duty. They see grain production at 95 MMT, of which wheat will account for 54 MMT, this year.

Unsurprisingly, the Russian Ag Ministry are more bullish than that, officially at 100 MMT for this year's grain crop, but the Ag Minister himself saying that output would beat that this year, and might match last year's 105.3 MMT total. Well, it will do won't it if that is what he has already decided.

The Russian Ministry say that spring plantings are now 77.1% complete on 23.9 million ha. Wheat is 70.5% done on 9.3 million ha, barley is 82.8% done and 91% of the 2015 corn crop is in, they say. Of course they could be (and probably are) lying about that as well.

Meanwhile the Ukraine Ministry of Half Truths say that spring planting there is just about finished on 6.9 million ha, including 4.2 million ha of corn. Ukraine growers have also planted 4.56 million ha of corn and 1.9 million ha of soybeans, they add.

There's some talk of an emerging drought issue in Canada, where it has been very dry for the past month, although above average rains are in the 15-day forecast.