Chicago Beans End Higher, But Wheat And Corn Prices Fall
18/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher for a third session in a row. Weekly export sales of 132,900 MT on old crop and 532,000 MT on new crop were supportive. Exports of 353,900 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week and 38 percent above the prior 4-week average, adding further to the friendly tone. So too did dollar weakness today. Cumulative season to date exports are now 47.22 MMT, with a further 3.18 MMT worth of outstanding sales taking total old crop commitments to 50.4 MMT. The USDA currently has 2014/15 exports at 48.3 MMT, so current net commitments are 104% of that forecast. Continued wetness associated with Tropical Depression Bill leans supportive for beans. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 20 bullish, 6 bearish and 3 neutral on bean prices. That's a marked change on a week ago when the results were 6 bullish, 10 bearish and 5 neutral. MDA CropCast estimated the world soybean crop in 2015/16 at 302.7 MMT, unchanged from a week ago and 1.2% lower than the current season. They made no adjustment to their US soybean production estimate, pegging this year's crop at 3.823 billion bushels, down 3.6% on last year's record. They see US yields this year averaging 45.8 bu/acre versus 48.1 bu/acre a year ago. Informa are due to release revised US acreage estimates tomorrow. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine soybean harvest advanced 1.9 percentage points this week to 98.5% complete. That means that Argentine growers have now already brought in 60.4 MMT of their projected record 60.8 MMT crop this year. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.77 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.42 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $326.60, up $2.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.25, down 60 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or two easier. For now the trade seems to think that the excessive wetness being seen in the US is more of a potential problem for beans than corn. Weekly export sales of 627,200 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were up 27 percent from the previous week and 3 percent above the prior 4-week average, and ahead of expectations for old crop sales of around only 200,000 MT. New crop sales of 200,400 MT were a bit disappointing however. Exports of over 1 MMT were respectable. The Argentine corn harvest is making only slow progress. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates it at 43.1% complete, up only 2.5 percentage points on the week. They held steady with their production estimate at 25 MMT, but said that the arrival of the first frosts will reduce grain moisture and speed up the harvest of later sown corn. Many of these later crops have yield potential above average, so final production could end up higher than the current 25 MMT forecast, they said. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 14 bullish, 8 bearish and 7 neutral on corn prices. A week ago it was 7 bullish, 10 bearish and 4 neutral. MDA CropCast trimmed 0.25 MMT off their world 2015/16 corn production forecast, pegging the global crop at 960.8 MMT. They were unchanged on US production at 13.8 billion bushels, down 4% on last year's record. They see US yields this year averaging 167.4 bu/acre, down 3.2% on 172.7 bu/acre a year ago. Informa are due out with their latest US acreage estimates tomorrow, they had corn plantings at 88.7 million acres versus the USDA’s 89.2 million last time. The USDA themselves are out at the end of the month. The US National Climatic Data Centre said that El Nino means that the water in the Pacific is about 3.6 degrees above normal in the eastern end of the basin, and that there is an 80 percent chance that it will persist through the first three months of 2016. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.58, down 1 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on all three exchanges. Weekly export sales of 315,700 MT were in line with fairly modest trade expectations. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced their forecast for Argentine wheat plantings from 4.1 million ha to 3.9 million, and said that sowing of that is now 34.7% complete. Dryness is an issue in some parts of the Argentine wheat belt, and growers are also falling out of love with the crop due to low prices and fickle on-off export quotas. An area of 3.9 million ha would be a drop of 11.4% on plantings of 4.4 million a year ago. Some analysts are suggesting that even that is too high and an area as low as 3.5 million ha could be on the cards this year. Rain is in the forecast for some of the drier areas of eastern Australia. MDA CropCast cut 1.13 MMT off their world wheat production estimate, taking that down to 710.7 MMT, a 1.2% decline on a year ago. They took 0.95 MMT off their European estimate, reduced the size of the US crop by 0.43 MMT, added 0.25 MMT to Ukraine and were unchanged on Russia. Japan bought 113 TMT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their regular weekly tender. Heavy rains on the US Plains continue to frustrate winter wheat harvest attempts and could be driving down quality and causing disease issues. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 14 bullish, 4 bearish and 11 neutral on wheat prices. A week ago it was 6 bullish, 9 bearish and 5 neutral. Russia said that they'd agreed to sell 160,000 MT of wheat to Nicaragua. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, said that the country could export 25-27 MMT of grains in 2015/16 if the current government target for production of 100 MMT is met, however unlikely that might be. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.98 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.39 3/4, down 8 cents.
