EU Grains Mostly Higher On The Day, But Lower For The Week
At the close Jul 15 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP111.00/tonne, although new crop Nov 15 was GBP1.00/tonne firmer at GBP122.50/tonne. Sep 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR178.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR161.75/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed jumped EUR5.75/tonne to close at EUR379.25/tonne.
For the week, old crop London wheat suffered losses of GBP5.50/tonne, whilst new crop did a bit better, shedding GBP2.00/tonne over the course of the week. Paris wheat was down EUR1.75/tonne compared with last Friday, corn fell EUR1.50/tonne, whilst rapeseed finished the week EUR6.75/tonne higher than it began it.
Various analysts have reported reduced rapeseed production expectations around the globe recently, explaining the strength being displayed in that market. Europe, Canada, Australia and Ukraine are all expected to see production levels this year fall anywhere between 5-18% as plantings of the oilseed decline.
In Europe, rapeseed crops in Germany and France are suffering from dryness and production estimates are being downsized. Another problem in French rapeseed was noted this week, when a Thompson Reuters crop tour of the country said that they had been "consistently told by local agronomists that the flowering stage lasted only 50-75% as long as it should have" this year.
They found rapeseed yield potential around 10-15% lower this year, "At this point, the weather no longer matters in terms of yield formation for the vast majority of rapeseed in France, as now the crop will sit and wait for harvest to start mid-July, with the hopes that severe summer storms steer clear until then," they noted.
Germany's DRV meanwhile forecast the 2015 rapeseed crop there to fall 20% this year, albeit from a record crop in 2014, on a combination of a 6% drop in plantings and a 15% decline in potential yields.
The Thompson Reuters tour of France found that yield potential in wheat was also in decline, although they said that there was still a few more week's time for life-saving rains, should they arrive, to reverse that trend.
FranceAgriMer today cut the proportion of the French winter wheat crop rated good to very good by 2 percentage points to 85% - that included a 4 point decline in the top "very good" category to 27%. At the end of May 36% of the crop was rated as being in very good condition.
French winter barley rated good to very good was trimmed one point also to 85%, spring barley in the top two categories was cut from 86% to 82%, although the proportion of corn rated that high was increased one point from a week ago to 85%.
A small amount of winter barley has been cut in the Midi-Pyrenees and Acquitaine regions, they said. Spring barley is now 99% headed, and 91% of the French corn crop has 6-8 visible leaves versus 83% a week ago and 84% a year ago, they added.
Spring barley in Burgundy is in good shape “but in urgent need of water,” according to Evergrain International. They cut their forecast for French spring barley yields from 6.7 MT/ha to 6.6 MT/ha, but raised their view on English spring barley yields from 6.0 MT/ha to 6.1 MT/ha.
In Spain meanwhile, the driest and warmest May ever will cut this year's cereal crop to 13.28 MMT versus a 5-year average of 15.8 MMT, said Asaja. They said that this was "remarkably lower than expected". Soft wheat production will fall to 5.1 MMT, down 10.5% on last year, with barley output falling 12% to 6.1 MMT, they predicted.
The EU Commission's MARS unit is due to released revised EU yield estimates on Monday, which will be watched with interest.
