Chicago Beans End Lower On The Day But Higher For The Week
19/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day, but higher for the week. Informa today estimated the 2015 US soybean area at 86.7 million acres, down 400,000 acres from their previous forecast, but still more than 2 million more than the USDA projected back in March. The Argentine Ag Ministry added 1 MMT to their forecast for this year's soybean crop there, taking that now up to 61 MMT. That's also 200,000 MT above what the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said yesterday and 1.5 MMT above the current USDA figure. The trade seems to be anticipating a drop in US soybean crop condition ratings in Monday's USDA report due to excessive recent rainfall. The forecast for the weekend is a bit more friendly, but large areas of the soybean belt are set to still receive above average rains in the next 15 days. More eastern states, from the Dakota's all the way south down to Texas, should be a bit drier than normal though. Planting progress will also be under scrutiny on Monday, with 13% or 11 million acres still to be sown as of last Sunday night. I guess that we might see progress up from 87% done to around 92% complete there. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows managed money reducing their net short position in beans for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.71 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.39 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $323.10, down $3.50; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.55, up 30 points. On a front month basis beans gained 31 1/2 cents for the week, with meal $5.70 higher and oil down 59 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower. Informa estimated US corn plantings at 88.78 million acres, which was up a little from 88.74 million in May, but below the USDA's 89.2 million forecast from March. The USDA revise their acreage numbers at the end of the month. "Rumours are rampant that the latest swath of moisture won’t be taken into consideration in the June 30 acreage report and therefore be missing potentially the greatest impact of the crop year," said Benson Quinn. The acreage survey was conducted Jun 1-10. The trade is thinking that the USDA might cut US corn ratings by around 2-3% in the good to excellent category on Monday. The latest Commitment of Traders Report shows managed money adding almost 30,000 contracts to their net short position in corn for the week through to Tuesday night. That's an increase of around 25% in a week. The trade seems largely fairly optimistic that US corn yields will ultimately turn out pretty well this year, despite the well advertised heavy moisture totals. Rain makes grain, as the old saying goes. FranceAgriMer reported that 85% of the French corn crop was in good to very good condition, up one point from a week ago. They said that 91% of the crop had 6-8 visible leaves versus 83% a week earlier and 84% a year ago. Indonesia were said to have bought around 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for August-October shipment in a tender at $190/tonne C&F. Ukraine said that it had now exported a record 33.73 MMT of grains this season, including 18.27 MMT of corn. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.53 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents. For the week Jul 15 corn was 1/4 cent higher and Dec 15 was 3/4 of a cent lower.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains on the day, but still with some sizable losses for the week. I guess we could call today's action consolidation from recent losses therefore. Informa estimated the US all wheat acreage at 56.1 million, up from their May estimate of 55.9 million and above the USDA intentions number of 55.3 million. Wheat growers on the Plains will welcome the drier than normal forecast that's on the cards for most across the next 14 days. Plains Grains in Oklahoma estimate that the winter wheat harvest in Texas and Oklahoma is 49% and 41% complete respectively. The USDA said 47% and 38% done as of Sunday night, and will update us on that on Monday. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimated the wheat crop there at 29.7 MMT this year, down from a previous forecast of 30.1 MMT. Ukraine said that it's 2014/15 wheat exports now stand at 10.75 MMT, with a further 4.46 MMT of barley having also been shipped out. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that the government plan no changes to the new "floating" export tax on wheat which comes into force on Jul 1. He did add however that if the financial markets stabilise then this might change at some point later in the season. FranceAgriMer trimmed 2 percentage points off winter wheat crop conditions there, although things are still better than they were a year ago. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.03 1/4, up 5 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.43, up 3 1/4 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat lost 15 1/4 cents, with Kansas down 14 3/4 cents and the Minneapolis market losing 18 1/4 cents.
