Nogger's Blog

29/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mixed, from up a half cent to down 6 cents. Weekly export inspections of 296,860 MT were a 40% increase from the week before. The USDA reported 2015 US soybean planting at 94% complete, up from 90% a week ago, but still 3 points behind the 5-year average. Kansas has caught up a bit to be 86% planted, although that's still 10 points behind normal. Missouri is only 62% done versus 94% typically at this time. Emergence was placed at 89% versus 94% for the 5-year average. The USDA said that 8% of the crop is now blooming, one point behind the 5-year average. Good to excellent crop conditions fell 2 points from last week to 63% which is now 9 points behind last year at this time. "Big declines for IL (-8%), IN (-9%) and OH (-11%) were reported for a second week and were joined this week by MI (-8%). The soybean crop in OH fell to 44% gd/ex which is down 25% over the past two weeks while IL rating are down 18% over the past two weeks and IN is down 22%," noted Benson Quinn. The trade is now looking to tomorrow's USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. "Stocks anything less than 730 million should be bullish as implies USDA is overstating old crop ending stocks," said Benson Quinn. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.02 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.80, down 6 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $341.90, up $0.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.05, down 17 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with mostly small losses. Weekly export inspections came in at just over 1 MMT, in line with where they have been for several weeks now. The USDA cut good to excellent corn crop ratings by 3 points to 68%, down from 75% this time last year. "Biggest declines were in the eastern corn belt with -19% in OH, -10% IN and -8 in IL," noted Benson Quinn. "Heavy Midwest rainfall developed from strong thunderstorms once again last week. It was the 4th consecutive week of excessive rainfall in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri. The cumulative June rainfall has reached 8 to 12 inches on Midwest farms compared to 4 inches, normally. The new forecast continues wet in a wide swath of the Midwest farm belt from Missouri into Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The forecast for June 29-July 5 is significantly cooler than previously. This would slow down evaporation in the soggy areas of the Eastern Midwest. Temperatures are predicted to fall 3-6 F below normal," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA also said that 4% of the 2015 US corn crop is now at the silking stage, half of the 5-year average. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings in tomorrow's USDA report at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Ukraine said that they'd exported 18.8 MMT of corn so far this season. Russia said that they'd exported 2.9 MMT of corn, a 27% drop on a year ago. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.02 1/4, up 1/4 of a cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains, building on Friday's advances. The front month July CBOT contract has now gained 12% in three sessions, noted Agrimoney. This was "a reflection of what is going on with the soft red winter wheat crop, and the disappointing pace of harvest," they said. The USDA reported the 2015 US winter wheat harvest at 38% complete, up from 19% a week ago and not that far behind the 5-year average pace of 46% done at this time. Top producing state Kansas is 48% done compered to 60% normally. They left winter wheat crop conditions unchanged at 41% good to excellent, and raise spring wheat one point to 72% G/E, which is now 2 points ahead of this time last year. They said that 49% of this year's spring wheat crop is headed compared to only 29% typically at this time. The wet weather is causing quality issues with winter wheat, which has pushed Chicago wheat to trade at an unusual premium to the Kansas market. Weekly export inspections of 316,515 MT were fairly modest, but in line with trade estimates. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings for tomorrow at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. Russia said that it had exported more than 30 MMT of grains so far this season, up 19% on a year ago. That includes 21.3 MMT of wheat, a 17% increase compared to 2013/14 and 5.3 MMT of barley, up more than 200% on a year ago. Ukraine said that it had exported 10.83 MMT of wheat so far this season, along with 4.46 MMT of barley. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.80 1/2, up 18 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.71 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.04, up 8 1/4 cents.