French Grains Rise To More Than 1-Year Highs
30/06/15 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, getting support from firmer US markets following the afternoon release of the USDA's latest US acreage estimates and quarterly stocks reports, and with the Paris market again buoyed by the weak euro.
At the close, Jul 15 London wheat was down GBP0.05/tonne to GBP117.65/tonne and Nov 15 London wheat was GBP0.35/tonne higher at GBP132.00/tonne. Sep 15 Paris wheat closed up EUR2.75/tonne at EUR201.25/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn jumped EUR8.00/tonne at EUR186.75/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR5.25/tonne to EUR397.25/tonne.
For Paris wheat, corn and rapeseed this was the highest front month close in more than a year, helped by the weak euro with the market anxious ahead of tonight's GMT 22.00 deadline for Greece to make a crucial loan repayment to the IMF.
Very warm and dry weather across much of Europe this week may be taking some of the shine off potential wheat, corn and rapeseed yields too this year, adding a bit more support to the market.
The EU Commission cut their forecast for the 2015 EU soft wheat crop from the 141.46 MMT estimated previously to 139.95 MMT, a 5.9% fall on 148.76 MMT a year ago.
They did however raise their corn production estimate a little from 68.13 MMT to 68.45 MMT, although that's still a 7% decline compared to last year.
A Bloomberg survey estimated the EU soft wheat crop a little higher, with an average trade guess of 140.6 MMT. The range of estimates was still pretty wide even at this relatively late stage in the game at 137.4 MMT to 145 MMT.
The same survey put the EU all wheat crop at 147.7 MMT, down nearly 10 MMT on a year ago for a drop of 6.3%.
The French all wheat crop was estimated at 39.2 MMT, from within a range of 37.8-40.5 MMT, and up slightly on 39.2 MMT a year ago.
The German all wheat crop was forecast at an average of 25.7 MMT, down 7.6% on a year ago. The range of guesses for that were 24.9-27.0 MMT.
The President of the Russian Grain Union said that the organisation may cut it's Russian wheat production estimate from the current 55 MMT forecast due to excessive dryness and also wetness in various parts of the country.
He also said that the official Ag Ministry's spring wheat planting estimates may be too high.
Russia's new export duty on wheat kicks in tomorrow.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the 2015 early grain harvest had been completed on 188.2k ha, or around 5% of the planted area, producing 573.6 TMT of grains so far with an average yield of 3.04 MT/ha. A year ago at this early stage average yields were 2.78 MT/ha.
Of course winter barley accounts for the vast majority of what has been harvested so far (171.7k ha), producing a crop of 537.2 TMT to date, although a small area of winter wheat is also said to have been cut. Ukraine growers have also begun harvesting winter OSR, the Ministry said.
