Chicago Grains End Mostly Lower
15/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed mixed, with the nears losing ground to the deferred positions for a change. AgRural estimated the Brazilian soybean area for the 2015/16 crop, planting of which mostly tales place in October/November, could rise 2.3% to 32.6 million acres. That could give them a potential output pushing the 100 MMT mark. The May NOPA crush came in at a record large for the month at 148.4 million bushels. Trade estimates for that ranged from 143.5 million to 150.7 million bushels, with an average guess of 147.3 million. The crush over the remaining three months of the season now only needs to average 131.1 million bushels to reach the USDA forecast for the season, said Benson Quinn. Weekly export inspections were also friendly at 226,614 MT. The USDA reported US soybean planting at 87% complete, up from 79% a week ago, but now 3 points behind the 5-year average. That means that there's 11 million acres still left to sow, using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate. Kansas (57% complete versus 85% typically) and Missouri (42% done versus 79%) are the principal laggards. Soybean emergence was placed at 75% nationally, up from 64% a week ago, but 2 points behind the norm. Crop conditions in the good to excellent category were down 2 points from last week at 67% versus 73% a year ago. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.37 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/4, unchanged; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $313.20, down $4.20; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.69, down 45 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. A stronger dollar didn't help, although weekly export inspections beat market ideas, coming in at 1.1 MMT. The USDA also reported 120 TMT of old crop corn sold to Japan under the daily reporting system. Reports of China cancelling DDGs purchases isn't too friendly though. "This morning reports indicated that Chinese officials would double the subsidies to end users of reserve (state-owned) corn from 200 yaun to 400 yaun or $32.50/ MT to $65/MT. Moreover, rumours are the Chinese could cancel up to 6 cargoes of DDG’s as well," said Benson Quinn. There's been the suggestion around for a while that the Chinese government are looking for ways to shift some of their huge domestic corn reserves, which some are forecasting could exceed 100 MMT this year. The USDA reported corn crop conditions at 73% good to excellent, down one point from a week ago. Emergence is at 97% versus 91% a week ago and 95% for the 5-year average. Agritel raised their forecast for the Russian 2015 corn crop from 11.7 MMT to a record 12.1 MMT. Other analysts are in much the same 12.0-12.5 MMT ballpark now. They predict exports in 2015/16 at 2.8 MMT. Russia said that it had exported 2.86 MMT of corn so far this season. Ukraine said that it had exported 17.78 MMT of corn in 2014/15, with more than 84% of the grain cargoes handled by Ukraine seaports last week being corn. Agritel estimated Ukraine's corn crop at 26 MMT this year, with 2015/16 exports at 16 MMT. Continued wetness in the US corn belt isn't being seen as a threat to corn, at least not yet it isn't. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.48 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.63 1/2, down 6 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with double digit losses on all three exchanges. Weekly export inspections were in line with expectations at 377,847 MT. Last week's Egyptian tenders highlighted once again that US wheat is largely too dear to attract a lot of attention internationally, apart from buying from the usual suspects. Russian origin material was said to be the cheapest offer on the table in an Iraq tender for hard wheat, quoted at $231 C&F. The best priced Australian offer was said to be $267.50, with Canadian material lining up at $266 and US product at $285.42 being well priced out. Russia said that it had exported 20.87 MMT of wheat so far this season, a 15% increase on a year ago. APK Inform said that more than 75% of all the grain cargoes handled by Russian seaports last week were wheat. Ukraine said that they'd shipped out 10.63 MMT of wheat so far this season. Agritel raised their estimate for the 2015 Russian wheat crop from 54 MMT to 55.5 MMT. They also increased Russia's 2015/16 wheat export potential from 20.8 MMT to 21.1 MMT. French winter wheat crop conditions fell 2 points in the good to very good category, but are still a lot better than they were a year ago. ABARES cut their forecast for Australia's 2015/16 wheat exports by 1.5 MMT to 16.5 MMT, citing tough competition from other sellers. The USDA said that the US winter wheat crop is 11% harvested, up from 4% done a week ago but down from 20% complete for the 5-year average. Good to excellent ratings were unchanged at 43%. Spring wheat was rated 70% good to excellent versus 69% a week ago and 72% this time last year. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.89 1/4, down 14 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.08 3/4, down 17 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.45 1/2, down 15 3/4 cents.
