Rapeseed Shortage Looming In 2015/16?

16/06/15 -- ABARES yesterday estimated Australia's 2015/16 canola exports at 2.18 MMT, down 11.3% from a year ago and the lowest since 2010/11.

Last week they pegged the planted area for the new season at 2.35 million ha, down 400k ha, or 14%, on a year ago.

Meanwhile: "World rapeseed, including canola, stocks are forecast to decline by 19% in 2015/16 to 6 MMT, largely reflecting an expected run-down in stocks in the European Union and Canada in response to expected falls in domestic production," they say.

Production in the EU this year is forecast to be somewhere around the 21-22 MMT region, depending on who's estimate you decide to run with. The USDA see plantings down 3% and yields falling 6% this year. Domestic consumption meanwhile is estimated at around 25 MMT.

A Thompson Reuters crop tour of France last week visited the Centre Region, the largest rapeseed growing region in the country, said that "rapeseed yields are fairly final, meaning that forward weather will not really matter".

They found yield potential 10-15% lower than last year due to spring dryness, and noted that those conditions meant that flowering in the region only lasted for about 3 weeks this year, compared to up to six weeks normally.

Production potential in Canada this year is also seen lower, with some spring crops damaged by frost needing replanting, and dryness on the Prairies there also an issue. The USDA currently has plantings down 4.7%, and Stats Canada will update us on that at the end of the month.