Nogger's Blog

23/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The USDA reported weekly export sales for beans of 80,800 MT for 2014/15 and 241,800 MT for 2015/16. The latter was below trade expectations, and appeared to confirm trade concerns that new crop sales are lagging. Trade estimates had been for sales of around 300,000-550,000 MT for new crop soybeans. There was however an additional sale of 180,000 MT of new crop beans sold to China under the daily reporting system. The USDA also announced 40,000 MT of US soybean oil sold to Venezuela for 2014/15 shipment. Actual soybean exports this week of 315,900 MT were pretty decent, being up 87 percent from the previous week and 56 percent above the prior 4-week average. Meal sales of 65,800 MT on old crop, and net reductions of 32,100 MT on new crop were poor. Trade gossip says that Ecuador and the Philippines have both purchased soymeal from Argentina for November and December delivery in preference to US material. MDA CropCast lowered their US soybean production estimate by 31 million bushels from last week to 3.663 billion bushels. "Rains were not quite as heavy across the south central and eastern Midwest this past week, which allowed wetness to ease a bit. The continued downturn in rains there this week will allow conditions to improve further," they said. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on beans found 5 bulls, 12 bears and 7 neutral. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.10, down 10 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans ended at $9.80 1/2, down 15 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal finished at $359.00, down $4.50; Aug 15 Soybean Oil ended at 31.19, down 16 points.

Corn: The corn market ended the day around 4 cents lower. Net weekly export sales of 223,400 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were a marketing-year low, being down 33 percent from the previous week and 54 percent below the prior 4-week average. New crop sales of sales of 311,400 MT were also at the low end of trade hopes. The trade was expecting sales of 250,000-450,000 MT for old crop and 300,000-500,000 MT for new crop. Still, weekly shipments hit a new marketing year high of 1.15 MMT. "However, the improving (US weather) conditions, harvest starting in the southern plans and delta as well as competitive demand might warrant a wider trade, at least for the moment," said Benson Quinn. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that their Argentine production forecast remains at 25 MMT. Harvesting of that crop is 73.4% complete so far, they added. Taiwan's MFIG bought 130,000 MT of Brazilian corn for Oct/Dec shipment. South Korea's FL bought 69,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan shipment. South Korea's MFG cancelled a tender for 70,000 MT of optional origin corn due, they said, to high prices. Ukraine said that they had exported 18.88 MMT of corn in 2014/15. The USDA's FAS estimated the EU-28 corn crop at 66 MMT this year, down 12.6% on the record 77.5 MMT produced a year ago. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the US corn crop by almost 82 million bushels this year to 13.443 billion bushels. That helped to knock 4 MMT off the global crop in 2015/16. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on US corn prices found 4 bulls, 15 bears and that were 7 neutral. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.03 1/4, up 1/2 cent; Dec 15 Corn ended at $4.13 3/4, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly higher. Weekly export sales of 502,800 MT beat albeit modest trade expectations of 200-400,000 MT. Exports of 582,300 MT were also up noticeably from the previous week, with the primary destinations being China (121,700 MT). Japan bought 141,483 MT of food wheat for Aug-Sept shipment, most of which was US material too. MDA CropCast trimmed their Canadian wheat production estimate by 0.64 MMT from a week ago to 27.2 MMT. "Rains last week further improved moisture in central Alberta and northern Saskatchewan, and additional improvements are expected this week. However, some dryness will likely linger in southern Alberta," they said. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that wheat planting there is almost 94% complete. The pending area is concentrated almost entirely on the Buenos Aires region, they added. They see plantings at 3.75 million ha this year. The Rosario Exchange see them even lower at 3.6 million acres, down a whopping 20% from last season. The Argentina wheat acreage may be the smallest in 100 years, based on a new report from AgroSouth, the online news agency, say Martell Crop Projections. "Planting rains were deficient in Cordoba and Santa Fe, the second and third top wheat provinces. Producers were still looking to plant wheat in the winter season June and July. However, unusually warm, dry weather has prevailed, severely depleting soil moisture, the Rosario Grains Exchange claims. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on US wheat prices found only 3 bulls, 18 bears and 5 that were neutral. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21 1/2, up 4 3/4 cent; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat ended at $5.17, up 4 3/4 cent; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat finished at $5.52 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents.