EU Grains See Some Light Consolidation After Recent Losses
23/07/15 -- EU grains closed mixed, with a bit of light consolidation in evidence following recent losses.
At the close Nov 15 London wheat was up GBP1.00/tonne at GBP124.00/tonne, Sep 15 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR186.50/tonne, Aug 15 Paris corn was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR179.25/tonne, whilst Aug 15 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR387.25/tonne.
The USDA's FAS estimated the EU-28 grain harvest at 305 MMT, down 6.5% from last season, although still the third highest on record.
They see wheat production here this year at 148.5 MMT, down 8.3 MMT compared with a year ago. Barley output will fall 3.0 MMT to 57.5 MMT and the corn crop will be 9.5 MMT lower at 66.0 MMT, they forecast.
They estimated EU-28 wheat exports in 2015/16 down 4 MMT to 30.5 MMT, with those of barley dropping 2.0 MMT to 7.0 MMT and corn shipments 0.5 MMT lower at 2.5 MMT.
"Weather stress in the final stages of the growing season is responsible for reduced yields. Heat wave conditions have developed in recent weeks promoting strong drying, along with sub-par rainfall. France the leading wheat country in Europe has experienced the worst decline in crop prospects from late-season weather stress," said Martell Crop Projections.
Rusagrotans cut their forecast for Russia's 2015/16 total grain exports from a previous estimate of 30-32 MMT, and last season's 31.95 MMT, to a new figure of 28 MMT.
They said that they expect final Russian wheat yields to be 8-10% lower than a year ago as the harvest progresses into some of the drier areas. The Russian Ministry said yesterday that average yields were up 6.6% so far, although this year's harvest was only 15.4% complete at the time.
Rusagrotrans trimmed their forecast for the country's 2014/15 grain ending stocks from 14.8 MMT previously to 12.3 MMT.
They see this year's harvest at 98-98.5 MMT versus 105.3 MMT in 2014.
Ukraine said that their 2015 early grain harvest was 55% complete on 5.64 million ha, producing a crop of 18.5 MMT to date. Yields are marginally ahead of a year ago at 3.27 MT/ha (3.24 MT/ha in 2014).
Growers there have cut 53% of their wheat, producing a crop of 12.78 MMT to date, with yields averaging 3.52 MT/ha. That implies a final wheat crop of just over 24 MMT, which is on a par with the current USDA prediction.
Barley output looks like being significantly higher than the USDA's 6.0 MMT though. With 66% of this year's crop harvested, the country says it has already produced 5.32 MMT, suggesting final production around the 8 MMT mark.
This isn't the case with rapeseed though. That harvest is already 71% done, producing 1.18 MMT so far, which implies total output of only 1.66 MMT versus the USDA at 1.8 MMT.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry also refined their figures for the old 2014/15 season, pegging grain exports at 35.12 MMT, which is 1.77 MMT below their previous forecast. Production last year was 63.86 MMT, they say.
Wheat exports in 2014/15 totalled 11.23 MMT, with barley at 4.49 MMT and corn at 18.88 MMT, they added.
Ukraine's 2014/15 grain ending stocks were pegged at 10.96 MMT, down 2.48 MMT from previously suggested, although up by almost a third compared to 12 months ago.
