Beans End Higher On Strong Crush Data, But Corn And Wheat Fall
15/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 5 cents higher. The NOPA crush for August came in at 135.3 million bushels, slightly higher than the average trade guess of 135 million. That was down from 145.2 million bushels in July, but up 22% from the 110.6 million bushels crushed a year ago and the largest August crush in eight years. Brazil's soybean planting season is now upon us, although Oil World said that dry weather may delay things a little. Dr Cordonnier estimates plantings up almost 3.5% at 33 million ha, with production rising from 96.2 MMT to a new record 99 MMT. In Argentina he sees the soybean planted area rising from 20.5 million ha to 20.9 million, but had production around unchanged at 60 MMT as last year's record yields are unlikely to be achieved again, he suggests. The total South American soybean crop is estimated at 174.3 MMT versus 170.7 MMT in 2014/15. Brazil’s IBGE said that they expect the country's 2015/16 soybean planted area to be up 5.8% from a year ago. Oil World estimated Brazil’s Sept soybean exports at 4.0 MMT versus 2.7 MMT a year ago. They see Brazil’s Jan/Sep soybean exports at a record 50.0 MMT, up almost 12% versus 44.7 MMT a year ago. Argentina said that growers there are 62.5% sold on their 2014/15 soybeans versus 57.25 a year ago. Dr Cordonnier estimated US 2015 soybean yields at 46.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate and 1.1 bu/acre lower than the USDA. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.89, up 4 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.92 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $318.60, up $4.30; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.47, down 46 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents lower, giving up some of yesterday's gains. The trade was maybe a bit disappointed/surprised to see the USDA leave condition ratings unchanged in last night's crop progress report. A drop of one or two points in the good to excellent category is what was generally expected. As well as the US harvest potential, thoughts are also turning to South American plantings. Dr Cordonnier forecast Brazilian corn plantings around unchanged, or slightly higher, than last year's 15.7 million ha. Production may come in equal or a bit lower than last year's 84.7 MMT, he said. In Argentina he sees corn for grain plantings down 12.5% at 2.8 million ha, with production dropping 15% from 25.5 MMT to 21.6 MMT. The total South American 2015/16 corn crop may total 110.2 MMT, down 3.3% from 114 MMT a year earlier, he suggests. IMEA said that they expect Mato Grosso’s 2015/16 safrinha corn acreage to increase by 2.7%. DERAL estimated Parana safrinha 2014/15 corn crop at 11.1 MMT up 7.8% from a year ago. They said that the harvesting of that is 96% complete. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are almost 70% sold on their 2014/15 corn crop, marginally higher than this time last year. Concerns about China’s economy continue with the stock market there down 3.5% today. The US Grains Council estimated the 2015/16 Indian corn crop at 13.8 MMT, down more than 16% versus the 2014/15 crop of 16.5 MMT due to dryness. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was 13.6% complete on 380k ha producing a crop of 1.9 MMT to date. Yields are averaging 4.98 MT/ha, down marginally on 5.01 MT/ha a year ago. The USDA have final Russian yields at 5.0 MT/ha this year. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/2, down 3 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $4.01 3/4, also down 3 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower in mini Turnaround Tuesday trade. "Wheat simply doesn’t have a story at this time to sustain a rally on its own. It had big gains on Monday, but couldn’t hold those levels today amid weakness in corn and strength in the dollar," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. The northern hemisphere harvest is winding down, seemingly without too many problems anywhere really. Talk early in the year of the potential for sharply lower output in Russia and Ukraine due to heavily reduced inputs doesn't appear to have materialised. The wheat harvest in Ukraine is over and has come in at a better than expected total of around 27 MMT. In Russia the Ag Ministry say that wheat harvesting is 76.6% complete on 20.6 million ha for a crop of 55.7 MMT to date. Final output should therefore be around 60 MMT, or maybe a bit more. Russian shippers are said to be attempting to defer existing wheat sales, and hold off making too many new ones, ahead of anticipated preferential changes to the current export duty on wheat. As and when these changes are made, then exports (currently down 22.5% year-on-year) could pick up markedly. Ukraine meanwhile remain their usual aggressive early season seller, and France have a huge record wheat crop that they are struggling to store to place onto the market as well. Any sign of dollar strength is therefore a potential problem for US wheat sales. This week's Fed meeting will thus be closely watched. As mentioned yesterday the USDA currently forecast US wheat exports rising 10% year-on-year in 2015/16, yet current sales lag year ago levels by 20%. Jordan are reported to have bought 100,000 MT of hard wheat from the Black Sea region for Nov shipment. Japan are in the market for their regular 138,855 MT combo of US, Canadian and Australian wheat for Oct-Nov shipment. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.94 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.94 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.20 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents.
