EU Grains Trade Lower, And Things That Make You Go Hmmmmm.....

16/09/15 -- EU grains closed mostly lower with Nov 15 London wheat down GBP1.30/tonne at GBP112.20/tonne, Dec 15 Paris wheat down EUR1.25/tonne at EUR168.25/tonne, Nov 15 Paris corn was EUR2.50/tonne lower at EUR164.25/tonne, whilst Nov 15 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.75/tonne easier at EUR366.75/tonne.

The President of the Russian Grain Union said that the country had exported more than 1 MMT of grain between Sep 3-9, almost all of which was wheat (934 TMT). That means that the country could export a record 4.7 MMT of grains this month, he said.

Total grain exports for the season could also break previous all-time highs at around 35 MMT, helped by large carryover stocks from last season when foreign sales declined after the government brought in an export duty.

The official government harvest estimate of 103 MMT may be too high though, he said, suggesting a crop of around 100 MMT. Russian officials are "pressuring" farmers into over-reporting this year's results, he says. Usually Russian growers under-state their harvest and over-state plantings.

In addition, a further 6-7% will need to be taken off final harvest estimates, which are given in bunker weight, to cover cleaning and screening, he added.

The Russian Ag Ministry say that this year's harvest is 72.4% complete on 34 million ha, producing a crop of 84.4 MMT to date. Yields are said to be down 6% versus last year.

Wheat accounts for 56.2 MMT of that total off 77.6% of the planted area, with average yields down by 8.8% at 2.69 MT/ha, according to Ministry data. That suggests a wheat area of 26.9 million ha. The USDA themselves have plantings at only 25.7 million ha. The USDA also only have final yields this year down by 5.2%, so if a fall of 8.8% comes with yields being over-stated then maybe something double that currently being forecast by the USDA is closer to reality?

We will probably never know, or at least this won't become clearer until much later on in the season.

Ukraine meanwhile said that they'd harvested 38.1 MMT of grains so far this season off 72% of the planned area. The wheat and barley harvests are over. The corn harvest is just getting going at 3% complete on 139k ha producing a crop of 584 TMT to date. Early yields so far are averaging only 4.21 MT/ha. The USDA see total final yields coming in much higher than that at 6.59 MT/ha.

Winter grain plantings in Ukraine are said to be 8% complete, whilst only 61% of the intended winter OSR area has so far been sown - and the optimum planting window for that is already closed!

Winter plantings in Russia incidentally are 46% complete on 7.9 million ha versus 8.4 million ha this time last year.