Chicago Grains End Mostly Lower
16/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. The USDA reported 184,500 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 delivery. A Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US next week, and is expected to sign deals to buy “several million” tonnes of US soybeans in a showcase deal similar to one done last year. CNGOIC estimated China’s total 2015/16 soybean imports at 78.0 MMT and said that 27.0 MMT of that will likely be of US origin. The FSA reported US "prevent plant" acres at 2.22 million, up a little from their August estimate of 2.17 million. Indonesia and Morocco are said to have bought Argentine soymeal for October shipment. Vietnam is said to be in the market for soymeal for May shipment. Ukraine's winter rapeseed plantings are well behind schedule with only 61% of the crop sown so far. The ideal planting time is now over, meaning that anything sown now has an increased winter-kill risk. The forecast there remains largely warm and dry for the next 15 days apart from maybe a chance of rain in the far west. EU soybean processing in August was 1.167 MMT versus 970,000 MT a year ago. The rapeseed crush was down at 1.856 MMT versus 2.03 MMT a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 900 TMT to 1.3 MMT for beans and 100-200 TMT for meal. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.87 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.91, down 1 1/4 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $316.30, down $2.30; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.68, up 21 points.
Corn: The market closed around 4 cents lower. The FSA pegged US "prevent plant" corn acres at 2.35 million versus their August estimate of 2.30 million. That wasn't as large an increase as the trade was expecting. The total US corn planted area, including failed acres, was now placed at 84.28 million acres versus the August estimate of 83.147 million. The US Grains Council said a Taiwanese trade delegation is expected to sign a letter of intent this week to buy 5.0 MMT of corn from the US. Mexico are also said to be in the market for corn. India estimated their summer corn crop at 15.51 MMT. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was 14.4% complete on 402k ha producing a crop of 2.0 MMT to date. Yields are averaging 5.01 MT/ha, up marginally on 4.97 MT/ha a year ago and consistent with the USDA's forecast for the season. That isn't the case in Ukraine though where early yields are only averaging 4.21 MT/ha versus the USDA's final season estimate of 6.59 MT/ha. Only 3% of the Ukraine crop has been harvested so far however. The US Energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production was up 3,000 barrels/day to 961,000 bpd last week, which is 30,000 bpd more than the same week in 2014. Ethanol stocks are at a 2015 low of 18.3 million barrels. Weekly corn export sales due out tomorrow are expected to come in at around 400-600 TMT. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.86, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.97 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The market closed around 4-6 cents lower across the three exchanges. Wheat seems unable to mount a serious rally without help from corn. It didn't get that assistance today. The FSA increased the number of "prevent plant" US wheat acres by less than 3,000 from the August report. The total US all wheat area is now estimated at 52.22 million acres versus the August estimate of 51.73 million. Competition from Europe and the Black Sea remains fierce. The president of the Russian Grain Union said that the country might export a record 4.7 MMT of grain this month, and predicted total 2015/16 exports at an all time high 35 MMT. Ukraine is also expected to export a record grain volume of around 36.4 MMT this season. The Russian wheat harvest is said to be 77.6% done producing a crop of 56.2 MMT to date, although there's some suggestion that growers there are being pressured into over-declaring their production numbers. South Korea's FLC bought 60,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for March shipment. South Korea's NOFI are tendering for 130,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for March–April shipment. Jordan bought 50,000 MT of optional origin feed barley for December shipment. Brazilian Meteorologist Somar said Brazil’s wheat losses from frost last Friday/Saturday were significant. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 275-450 TMT. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.86 1/2, down 6 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.16 1/2, down 4 cents.
