Chicago Corn And Wheat End Lower In Follow-Through Trade From Friday, Beans Post Modest Gains
12/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains, but well off earlier highs. The regular weekly crop progress report from the USDA is delayed a day until tomorrow due to the Columbus Day holiday. China’s central bank took fresh steps to inject liquidity into their struggling economy over the weekend and said the recent stock market’s correction "is almost over". The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 3.3% on the news. AgRural estimated Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean crop at 98.9 MMT versus CONAB's estimate of 100.1-101.9 MMT and the USDA estimate of 100.0 MMT, both from Friday. AgRural see the planted area at 32.8 million ha, up 2.7% from a year ago. They say that plantings are around 8% complete, one point ahead of this time last year. The leading producing state of Mato Grosso has got off to a sluggish start. IMEA said that the state's bean crop is 6.1% planted, up from 1.7% a week ago, but down versus 8.3% a year ago and the 5-year average of 12.0% done. Rapeseed futures hit a 2-month high in Europe today. Crude popped above $50/barrel but failed to hold, slipping back to close at little more than $47/barrel. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.87 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.92 1/2, up 2 cents; Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $309.30, up $2.40; Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.01, down 16 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents easier, in light follow-through bearish sentiment left over from Friday. As with beans, there wasn't a great deal of fresh information to go on, with weekly export inspections and crop progress pushed back until tomorrow. The French Farm Ministry lowered their 2015 corn crop estimate to 13.1 MMT versus a previous estimate of 13.5 MMT. That's down almost 28% versus the 2014 record crop of 18.1 MMT and also down 15.8% from five year average. Corn average yields this year are estimated at 8.5 MT/ha versus 10.5 MT/ha in 2014. Similar large production declines look like being replicated in other major EU producing nations too. Ditto the Black Sea. The USDA attaché in Ukraine said that the country's 2015 corn production may be 7.3 MMT lower than last year. They see Ukraine’s 2015/16 corn exports at 12.5 MMT, down 35.6% versus 19.4 MMT in 2014/15. The USDA themselves had these at 17 MMT on Friday. Ukraine's seaports were said to have exported 122 TMT of corn last week, up from 53 TMT the previous week. Israel bought 40,000 MT of optional origin corn, which will most likely end up coming from the Black Sea. Mexico and Egypt are said to be shopping for corn. Russia said that it's 2015 corn harvest was approaching halfway done at 6.5 MMT. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80 3/4, down 2 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.91 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The market closed a touch lower across the three exchanges. Egypt's GASC bought a mixture of Russian and Romanian wheat in their latest tender released Friday. French wheat just missed out due to higher freight costs. The prices on offer were well below anything that the US can currently compete with. The USDA on Friday highlighted that US wheat is now starting to miss out on business into even their most "traditional" homes, with Mexico buying EU and Black Sea wheat of late. Saudi Arabia were said to have bought 740,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat in a tender for Dec-Feb shipment. Algeria were reported to have bought "at least" 675,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat for Nov-Dec shipment. French material will surely figure in that. Israel bought 40,000 MT of option origin, possibly Black Sea material, feed wheat. Russia said that it's 2015 wheat harvest now stands at 63 MMT in bunker weight off 97.5% of the planned area. Winter grain plantings in Russia are said to be 84.5% complete. Winter wheat plantings in Ukraine are only 64% done. Dryness issues for wheat in the US, Black Sea and Australia keep getting a supportive mention. Australian Crop Forecasters lowered their estimate for Australia’s 2015 wheat crop to 24.3 MMT, and said they may reduce that further if rain doesn’t arrive soon. The USDA were at 27 MMT on Friday, which was 1 MMT higher than they were in September! Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.06 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.97 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.28 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.
