EU Grains Mostly Lower To Start Week - Although Rapeseed Settles At 2-Month High

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:03 | Categorized as

12/10/15 -- EU grains closed mixed, but mostly a touch lower to start the week. Wheat and corn maybe suffered a little weekend "hangover" following a bearish tone for them to Friday night's USDA report. Rapeseed was higher, following soybeans, for which the WASDE report was more friendly.

At the close, Nov 15 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne to GBP116.50/tonne, Dec 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR179.75/tonne (although other months were lower), Nov 15 Paris corn was EUR1.00/tonne easier at EUR165.75/tonne, whilst Nov 15 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.25/tonne steadier at EUR379.00/tonne.

For rapeseed this was the highest close for a front month since Aug 11.

Egypt bought 180 TMT of Russian/Romanian wheat for Nov 11-20 over the weekend, with French wheat once again missing out due to higher freight costs. The difference this time was minuscule however, with one cargo of the Russian wheat bought coming in at $208.93/tonne C&F versus the best priced French offer of $208.96/tonne.

On an FOB basis French wheat was the cheapest again - priced at $196.74/tonne versus a best price of $198.11/tonne from Russia and $198.56/tonne from Romania.

The Egyptian supplies Minister said that the country now has enough wheat bought to last it until mid-March, which would be just prior to the start of their own harvest.

News reported on Reuters that Algeria had purchased "at least" 675 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for Nov/Dec shipment was viewed as supportive, as this was widely considered to be at the very least mostly, and possibly entirely, of French origin.

Russia said that their 2015 grain harvest had now reached 100 MMT off 94% of the planned areas as of Friday. Wheat accounts for 63 MMT of that total and barley a further 18 MMT. Both those harvests are said to be 97.5% complete.

The Russian corn harvest is said to be 47.3% done at 6.5 MMT.

Winter plantings for the 2016 harvest in Russia are said to be complete on 14.4 million ha, or 84.5% of the forecasted area. Colder than normal temperatures these next few days should give way to warmer temperatures from the end of the week onwards. The forecast also has a wetter outlook than previously.

The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 10.82 MMT of grains so far this season (to Oct 7), an 18.6% drop on the same period in 2014. Wheat accounts for 8.36 MMT, or 77%, of that total. Barley adds another 1.82 MMT, or 17%, and corn 566 TMT (5%).

Ukraine 's Deputy Ag Minister said that 55% of the nation's 2015 wheat harvest was of milling standard, and that exports in 2015/16 of 16 MMT would be split roughly 50:50 between milling and feed wheat.

The country's winter grain plantings for 2016 are said to be 58% complete on 4.3 million ha, some 700k ha less than this time last year. Wheat accounts for the vast majority of that total at 4.0 million ha, or 64% of the Ag Ministry forecast.

The French Farm Ministry tweaked their estimate for this year's soft wheat crop there a bit higher, up from 40.8 MMT to a new record 41.0 MMT, and some 14.2% above the 5-year average. They see average yields this year at 7.93 MT/ha versus 7.48 MT/ha a year ago.

The 2015 French corn harvest was estimated at only 13.1 MMT however, down from 13.5 MMT previously and 15.8% below the 5-year average.