Nogger's Blog

26/10/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, despite strength in wheat and corn. The market seemed concerned over the initial results of the Argentine election over the weekend, in which opposition challenger Macri forced run-off in a tight vote. An ultimate victory for him potentially means more beans and meal coming onto the world market from Argentina. For now though, producers are likely to keep a lid on their sales until they get a definitive election result, it is thought. In Brazil, IMEA said that Mato Grosso soybean plantings are 19.6% done versus 14.3% a week ago, 20.1% a year ago and less than half the 40.4% average pace. Ag Rural estimated Brazilian soybean plantings at 20% complete nationally versus the 5-year average of 30%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first 3 weeks of October averaged 125.3 TMT a day, down from 176.4 TMT/day in September but ahead of 32.2 TMT/day a year ago. The early season pace of US exports remains very robust. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 2.672 MMT, which was 13% larger than last week's already impressive total. Season to date shipments are now nearly 16% ahead of last years record pace. The USDA also announced 120,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2015/16 shipment under the daily reporting system. There's less rapeseed about this year. Oil World forecast global rapeseed exports at 3.19 MMT in Q4 of this year, a 14.5% decline on a year previously. COPA said for the week ending Oct 21 Canada crushed 159,925 MT of canola, down 5.2% from the week before. New daily limit movements in the grains/oilseeds sector are set to be introduced in Chicago from next Monday. On beans the new limit will be 60 cents/bushel versus 70 cents currently. Meal will drop to $20 from $25 and oil will stay unchanged at 200 points. After the close tonight the USDA said that the 2015 US soybean harvest was 87% complete, up 10 points from a week ago and versus 68% a year ago and 80% for the 5-year average. That's in line with expectations of 86-90% done. Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.85, down 10 1/2 cents; Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.84 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $302.20, down $2.90; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.78, down 79 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher on spillover strength from wheat. The move came despite disappointing weekly export sales of 413,304 MT coming in 16.5% lower than the previous week. Season to date exports of 4.765 MMT are 26% smaller than they were this time a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported corn plantings there at 31.7% complete versus 32.8% a year ago. Brazil's corn exports are now outstripping those of beans. The South American powerhouse shipped out an average of 266.2 TMT/day of corn in the first three weeks of October - more than double the daily volume of beans exported. That was up almost 62% from 164.5 TMT/day in September and nearly 200% more than 138.2 TMT/day in October 2014. Ukraine exported more corn than wheat last week, for the second week in a row as they appear to be now switching their efforts to the former. They shipped out 425 TMT of corn, including plenty to lots of EU destinations such as the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and Belgium, as well as non-EU homes such as Egypt. By comparison Ukraine's wheat exports were 314 TMT and those of barley were 183 TMT. Russia said that its 2015 corn harvest was now 69.8% complete at 9.7 MMT. That's up on 8.9 MMT this time a year ago. Russian yields are averaging 5.08 MT/ha versus 4.55 MT/ha in 2014. The USDA reported the 2015 US corn harvest to be 75% complete, up 16 points from a week ago and versus only 44% a year ago and seven points ahead of 68% for the 5-year average. That's in line with expectations of 74-77% done. CEC are due to estimate South Africa’s corn area tomorrow. Based on a Reuters survey South Africa’s 2016 corn area is pegged at 2.63 million ha, little changed versus the 2015 area of 2.65 million. New daily trading limits for Chicago corn apply as from Monday. These will now be lowered to a maximum of 25 cents per bushel versus 30 cents currently. A possible Argentine election win for Mr Macri would potentially be even more bearish for corn than soybeans. Argentine corn exports are heavily restricted by taxes and quotas, and a lowering of these would lead to more corn coming onto the international market. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.84 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.93 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished the day posting strong gains across the three exchanges. Weekend rains from the remnants of Hurricane Patricia in US winter wheat areas of TX, KS and OK were far less widespread and impressive than the totals advertised, prompting some short-covering. Data on Friday showed that managed money added 35,740 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat for the week through to Tuesday night, said to be the largest one-week sell-off ever. Maybe a few got cold feet today it would seem. In their first weekly crop condition ratings of the year tonight, the USDA put winter wheat rated good to excellent at only 47%, down from 59% a year ago and below trade expectations of around 50% G/E. Top producing state of Kansas is only 41% good to excellent. The USDA had winter wheat emergence at 62%, exactly in line with the 5-year average. Plantings are 83% which is 2 points behind the recent norm. The USDA reported a less than impressive 317,079 MT worth of weekly export inspections today, which it seems the trade largely chose to ignore. Season to date inspections are only 82.5% of what they were this time a year ago. Russia said that their 2015 wheat harvest was 99.6% done at 63.8 MMT in bunker weight. Their wheat exports for the season so far (to Oct 21) are down 18.2% at 9.514 MMT. Russian 12.5% milling wheat prices are now said to be up to around $200/tonne FOB, but still some $10/tonne below US wheat. Dryness remains an issue for newly planted winter wheat in Russia and Ukraine. Russia's winter grain crop (the vast majority of which is wheat) is said to be around 91% planted. The Russian Grain Union say that about 30% of this is at risk due to poor emergence/germination. Ukraine's winter wheat crop is about 85% planted and faces similar problems. The 15-day forecast for both areas is now drier and colder than it was last week. Iran said that they plan to take the unusual step of exporting 400 TMT of surplus wheat stocks onto the international market. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that Argentine winter wheat planting for the 2016 harvest has barely begun. Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT of hard wheat. The results of an Ethiopian tender for 1 MMT of wheat are still awaited. the new daily limit on CBOT wheat is 35 cents/bu versus 40 cents currently. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.09, up 18 1/2 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.92 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.20 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents.