EU Wheat Ends Higher As US Rains Disappoint And FSU Forecast Turns Drier/Colder
26/10/15 -- EU wheat traded higher to start the week, corn was mixed and rapeseed ended lower. US wheat was firmer overnight following less widespread rains from the remnants of Hurricane Patricia over the weekend than the market had been anticipating, which added some support to EU markets.
At the close, Nov 15 London wheat was up GBP1.75/tonne at GBP115.25/tonne. In Paris, Dec 15 wheat was EUR2.00/tonne firmer at EUR181.00/tonne, Nov 15 corn was EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR166.00/tonne and Nov 15 rapeseed slumped EUR5.50/tonne lower to EUR374.75/tonne.
The euro was off Friday's lows, but the outlook for the single currency still remains firmly lower, which should add support to Paris wheat in the long run.
Another friendly factor for wheat today was a change in the weather outlook for Russia and Ukraine, with drier and colder than normal temperatures back in the 15-day forecast for both.
In one of the main winter wheat areas in southern Russia, Stavropol, the local Ag Ministry said that winter grain plantings are complete at 1.914 million ha, of which almost 97% is wheat.
On a national level the Russian Ag Ministry say that winter plantings for the 2016 harvest are 91% complete on 15.6 million ha versus 16.2 million this time a year ago.
The Russian 2015 harvest meanwhile is 97.6% complete at 104.9 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 63.8 MMT of wheat, 18.2 MMT of barley (both off 99.6% of the planted area) and 9.7 MMT of corn (off 69.8% of plan).
Russia's wheat exports Jul 1 to Oct 21 were 9.514 MMT, down 18.2% versus 11.624 MMT a year previously. Total grain exports of 12.319 MMT are 12.2% lower at 12.319 MMT. The Ministry forecast final 2015/16 grain exports at 30 MMT.
Ukraine said that they'd harvested 52.2 MMT of grains so far this season to Oct 23. They exported more corn than wheat last week - for the second week running - as they now seem to be switching their focus to the former grain. Corn exports last week were 425 TMT, including lots of EU destinations such as the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany and Belgium, as well as non-EU homes such as Egypt.
Ukraine's wheat exports last week were 314 TMT, and they also shipped out 183 TMT of barley.
Oil World forecast global rapeseed exports in Q4 of this year at 3.19 MMT, down 14.5% on a year ago, as supplies tighten. Canada will lead the world export table with 2.2 MMT (versus 2.3 MMT a year ago), followed by Australia (0.43 MMT versus 0.55 MMT) and the CIS (0.42 MMT versus 0.74 MMT).
Iran, the second largest wheat importer in the Middle East, said that they intend to take the unusual step of selling 400,000 MT of surplus stocks onto the international market. They bought 8.08 MMT of wheat on the domestic market this year, up 1.4 MMT on a year ago, swelling government stocks to 8.3 MMT versus the previous 3-year average of only 3.1 MMT.
The USDA expected to probably release the first US winter wheat crop ratings of the new season later tonight. Crop conditions were placed at 59% good to excellent in the first ratings report of the season. a year ago.
