Chicago Beans Little Changed, Corn And Wheat Edge Lower
24/11/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. The market garners support from ongoing strong Chinese demand, and one or two worries about dryness in parts of Brazil. Weakness comes from the Macri victory in the weekend's Argentine presidential run-off, suggesting that large volumes of old crop soybeans will now start to come onto the international market. Argentine soybeans currently incur a 35% export tax. Planting of their 2016 crop is about a third of the way through. The Argentine Ag Ministry see plantings at a record 20.6 million ha this year, up 4% from 19.8 million a year ago. US harvest pressure is also a bearish factor, along with dollar strength and the outlook for the Fed to start to raise US interest rates next month. The markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Across the last 40 years beans have apparently closed higher on both the day before and after Thanksgiving almost 65 percent of the time. Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.63 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.66 1/4, unchanged; Dec 15 Soybean Meal closed at $283.80, down $1.50; Dec 15 Soybean Oil closed at 28.31, up 40 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents lower. Dr Cordonnier was said to have left his Brazilian and Argentine corn productions estimates unchanged at 81.2 MMT and 21.6 MMT respectively. The Macri win in the weekend election run-off in Argentina is expected to herald a return to more "normal" crop rotation in Argentina, with corn and wheat output both increasing in the coming years. Currently Argentine corn exports are taxed at 20%. Although this is less than the duty on beans, corn (and wheat too) also suffer from the introduction of sporadic quotas on volume, a matter that Argentine growers have been unhappy about for a long time - that's one of the reasons behind the relatively recent large-scale switch into beans. The HGCA say that the combined soybean, corn and wheat area in Argentina is 27.65 million ha, of which 72% is beans and only 12% corn. In Brazil the equivalent figures are 64% for soybeans and 31% for corn, they note. The Ukraine corn harvest is now 93% done on 3.82 million ha for a crop of 21.19 MMT to date. The Russian harvest is now 88.5% done at 12.4 MMT. The EPA is expected to release their updated Renewable Fuels Standard this week with the trade expecting an uptick of of 2-5% in ethanol and biodiesel. Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 3 cents; Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.69 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Reuters reported that the wheat acreage in India for their 2016 harvest has dropped 26% due to high temperatures delaying plantings. Egypt tendered for wheat for Dec 21-31 shipment with the results expected tomorrow. Due to the slightly tricky delivery period they might not find quite as many willing sellers as in recent tenders. It appears that warmer than normal weather conditions mean that bits and bobs of late winter grain plantings are still ongoing in Russia and Ukraine. Russian plantings for the 2016 harvest are at 16.3 million ha, or 95.2% of the government's aim, versus 16.8 million ha this time a year ago. Ukraine said that winter grains there are 90% planted on 6.64 million ha versus 7.65 million ha this time a year ago. Russia's response to the shooting down of one of their jets by Turkey will be interesting, as the latter are big buyers of Russian wheat and energy. Turkey says that the jet had strayed into its airspace but Russian President Vladimir Putin says that it was flying over Syria. The BBC say that Putin has described the downing of the plane as a "stab in the back", and warned of serious consequences. Jordan cancelled a tender for 100,000 MT of hard wheat for Feb/Mar shipment due to lack of offers and immediately re-issued another tender for the same. Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.84 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents; Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.57 1/2, down 7 cents; Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.09 1/2, down 7 cents.
