Paris Rapeseed Close To 3-Month Highs

25/11/15 -- EU grains closed mostly higher with Jan 16 London wheat up GBP0.65/tonne at GBP114.45/tonne. In Paris, Dec 15 wheat rose EUR1.75/tonne to EUR177.75/tonne, Jan 16 corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR167.00/tonne and Feb 16 rapeseed gained EUR5.00/tonne to EUR382.00/tonne.

Fresh news was lacking. Rapeseed, having been the weakest link yesterday, regained the starring role today aided by an improved showing from Chicago soybeans. This was in fact within half a euro of being the best close on a front month since mid-August for Paris rapeseed.

The outlook for another significant fall in EU (and Ukraine) rapeseed plantings for 2016 might be lending some support to that going forward.

Talking of which, the Ukraine Ag Ministry recently said that the country's winter rapeseed crop was only sown on 79% of the originally intended area, with the optimum planting window long since passed.

Sowing of winter wheat in Ukraine has fared a little better, with 89% of the intended area now sown, but only 62% of that is yet emerged. Of what has emerged only 68% is said to be in good to satisfactory condition versus 83% this time a year ago.

Ukraine's grain exports for the season so far now stand at 16.3 MMT, including 8.64 MMT of wheat, 3.65 MMT of barley and 3.95 MMT of corn.

The Ukraine Ministry said that the country would export 16.6 MMT of wheat this season along with 3.9 MMT of barley and 16 MMT of corn.

Egypt's GASC bought 240,000 MT of wheat for late December shipment today, half of which was French origin. They also picked up one cargo each of Romanian and Russian wheat.

Sharply lower freight rates helped French wheat win a good share of the business. Whilst that is good news on the one hand, on the other it also possibly means that other "traditional" North African homes for French wheat like Algeria and Morocco are able to pick up more competitive offers out of the Baltic.

Tomorrow's weekly export licence total out of Brussels will provide a useful barometer to EU exports. Last week's total was a marketing year high of 636 TMT, up 58% on 401 TMT on the previous week. That market will be hoping for that trend to continue.

The market is also keeping an eye on developments between Russia and Turkey following the shooting down of a Russian jet that had allegedly violated Turkey's airspace on Tuesday. Turkey are a huge buyer of Russian wheat and energy, and as we know President Putin is not one to take these things lying down.